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Thailand election 2023
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Supporters of the Palang Pracharat party hold a poster of Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha. Photo: AP

Thailand election: rude shock for Thaksin-linked party as vote count points to solid victory for pro-military rivals

  • Exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Hong Kong urges supporters to maintain ‘hope’ but does not mention prospect of defeat
  • Strong showing for Future Forward, while Democrats’ support collapses and regional Bhumjaithai party emerges as kingmaker
The Shinawatra political bloc that prevailed in Thailand’s past five elections woke on Monday to the unfamiliar prospect of life on parliament’s opposition benches as results from Sunday’s election showed its pro-military rivals headed for victory.

The bloc’s architect, self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, from Hong Kong urged supporters to have “hope” but did not mention the prospect of defeat.

His bloc has for two decades channelled populist support from Thailand’s rural provinces in an ongoing power struggle against pro-military forces that loathe him and his sister, Yingluck. Both were driven from power by coups.

“Get past obstacles with intelligence and play by the rules, and we will succeed. My thoughts are with all Thais,” Thaksin said during a regular weekly podcast aired on Monday mornings.

The Pheu Thai party, aligned with the Shinawatras, sought to wrest power from junta chief Prayuth Chan-ocha – who is vying to become the democratically elected prime minister – with a resounding victory over the military-aligned Palang Pracharat Party. With 93 per cent of votes counted, that outcome appears unlikely.

A Bangkok Post tally showed Pheu Thai winning 130 constituency seats compared to Palang Pracharat’s 120. But a tally of the popular vote showed the pro-military party – formed just last year by Prayuth’s allies – in the lead, with 7.1 million votes compared to Pheu Thai’s 6.9 million.

The legislative voting path for the Thai prime minister

The projection suggests Prayuth’s party is within a whisker of reaching the crucial 126-seat threshold in the 500-seat lower house, enabling Prayuth to remain as prime minister. The lower house is made up of 350 constituency wards and 150 party list seats.

Prayuth will need the support of 376 members in the bicameral 750-seat National Assembly but the 250 senators are all junta appointees and will back his prime ministerial bid.

Pheu Thai, on the other hand, had been counting on routing Palang Pracharat in the lower house.

Explained: Thailand’s politics and monarchy

The complicated electoral maths is just one part of the political quagmire confronting Thailand after a dramatic election night.

Complete results in the 350 constituency seats were scheduled to be announced by 8pm on Sunday – three hours after the close of polls – but have been delayed until Monday afternoon. The election commission chief Ittiporn Boonpracong claimed he was encumbered because “he did not have a calculator”. Thai social media users were not amused by his excuse, launching a Twitter hashtag criticising him.

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra welcomes guests for the wedding of his youngest daughter in Hong Kong. Photo: AP

Hashtags translating as “Election Commission screw-up” and “cheating the election” were also trending. Some users pointed to inconsistencies between the numbers for voter turnout and ballots cast in some constituencies, and questioned the turnout of less than 70 per cent, which was much lower than expected.

Listen to the Asia Briefing podcast

Political scientist Titipol Phakdeewanich said the likelihood of Palang Pracharat forming a government with the help of the unappointed senate contravened democratic principles.

“Under the parliamentary system, the party with the highest number of seats in the house should form the government,” the Ubon Ratchathani University professor said. “If the Palang Pracharat forms the government, it will lead to many questions.”

If the Palang Pracharat forms the government, it will lead to many questions
Titipol Phakdeewanich, political scientist

However, the implications of the election extend beyond Pheu Thai and Palang Pracharat.

Some observers identified a silver lining in the imminent defeat of the pro-democracy camp – which had hoped to restore civilian rule after five years of junta rule. A Palang Pracharat victory will likely herald a quasi-democracy in which Prayuth’s military allies remain in the corridors of power instead of returning to their barracks.

However, political commentator Panat Tassaneeyanond hailed the impressive showing by the pro-democracy Future Forward party, propelled by support from younger voters.

“This is an important step towards the new democracy that the new and old generation want to see,” Panat wrote on Facebook.

Uttama Savanayana, leader of Palang Pracharat party, which nominated junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha as its candidate for prime minister. Photo: AP

The Bangkok Post projected Future Forward, led by billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, would win 78 seats – 53 from the party list – as it drew a large share of the popular vote.

Two other smaller parties also recorded eye-catching results, albeit for different reasons.

Who’s who in Thai election’s Game of Thrones

The Democrats, traditionally second-best behind Thaksin’s bloc, watched their support collapse and were projected to win 49 seats, well short of the 150 seats they targeted.

The party’s long-time leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, who was prime minister of an unelected minority government from 2008-11, on Sunday said he would step down.

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha before the election. Photo: AP

The regional Bhumjaithai party, which campaigned on a platform promising complete legalisation of recreational marijuana, reprised its role of political kingmaker, with projections showing it finishing third behind Pheu Thai and Palang Pracharat. Its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, a one-time Thaksin loyalist, could yet form a coalition with Prayuth.

Anuthin said before the polls his party would be “pretty indispensable” to the two major factions if they wanted to form a coalition government.

Explained: a battle royale for junta’s Prayuth Chan-ocha and the Shinawatras

Results of the 350 constituency seats were expected to be announced this afternoon. Party list allocations can be predicted from those results but will not yet be formalised by the election commission.

Results will be deemed official only after the May 4-6 coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn. Prayuth’s administration remains in charge until then.

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