Jakarta is one of the fastest sinking cities in the world, losing a centimetre a year, and sizeable portions of the city could be underwater by 2050, according to a study by the Bandung Institute of Technology.

Though it just got a new subway system, it still suffers from some of the world’s worst traffic congestion and is prone to regular flooding and occasional earthquakes.

This is not the first time an Indonesian leader has moved to relocate the capital. Proposals to decamp to Palangkaraya, the provincial capital of Central Kalimantan on the island of Borneo, surfaced as early as the 1950s under the country’s first president Sukarno.

Widodo’s administration studied the feasibility of relocating to Palangkaraya, which is four times the area of Jakarta, in 2017.

Vice-president Jusuf Kalla, who is from South Sulawesi, suggested locating the new capital on his island. He ruled out the island of Sumatra to the east of Jakarta due to the risk of natural disasters.

Minister of National Development and Planning Bambang Brodjonegoro on Tuesday told reporters the relocation could take five to 10 years.

“It will take time. The available land must be conflict-free and obtained with consent from previous owners before the development can be done,” Brodjonegoro said.

Widodo, who is likely to be officially named the winner of Indonesia’s April 17 presidential election this month, chose the plan from options including the relocation of all government buildings to a special zone within Jakarta.

Iming Tesalonika, a lawyer specialising in infrastructure investment who also lectures at the University of Indonesia, said the plan to relocate the capital might be an attempt by the Widodo administration to distract from residual opposition to the expected election result. Former general Prabowo Subianto, Widodo’s challenger, has refused to accept the results of the unofficial quick counts.

“Widodo’s administration needs a new story to set a new direction, uniting Indonesian society,” Tesalonika said.

The move would continue the trend of building new capital cities in the region, following the Malaysian government’s move to Putrajaya in the mid-1990s and Myanmar’s abrupt relocation to Naypyidaw in 2006.

Experts suggest Widodo may likewise be interested in minting a modern city as a lasting testament to his legacy.

Moving the city could also reduce the importance of the governor of Jakarta in national politics, which has historically served as a springboard to national office, said Bayu Dardias Kurniadi, a political economist at the Australian National University.

Bayu estimated the relocation could cost up to US$33 billion, though he said staying in Jakarta with its straining infrastructure could be even more costly.

Planning minister Brodjonegoro said the new capital would take up to 40,000 hectares and have a population of between 900,000 and 1.5 million people.

“Building a new city is expensive, and that can’t be entirely borne by the state budget and state-owned enterprises,” said Aichiro Suryo Prabowo, who teaches infrastructure policy at the University of Indonesia.

“Ideally, profitable projects could be contracted out to the private sector with an open, competitive bidding process, and the state budget can be allocated to finance others.”

Urban planning expert Ian Morley at the Chinese University of Hong Kong said relocating the capital would be no easy feat.

“To start from scratch and have a fully operational city is no fly-by-night project, but can be done – as historical and contemporary examples of Canberra, Brasilia and Astana show,” he said.

“It requires vision, will, and large amounts of money. It will also require the means for people to want to live there: provision of houses, transport and cultural facilities, and a ready-built economy.”

Indonesia faces the added problem of geography. Rita Padawangi at the Singapore University of Social Sciences said Jakarta’s relocation should not be compared with Naypyidaw or Putrajaya.

Myanmar and Malaysia are both in continental Southeast Asia, while Indonesia is an archipelago, she said, meaning any decision to move away from the most populous island of Java would require intense planning of connectivity from different regions to the new capital.

“If flooding, traffic jams, sinking, and pollution are the problem, why should moving the capital be the solution?” Padawangi said.

If the relocation plan stemmed from a bid to bring development and reduce inequality in Indonesia’s outlying islands, then it would make more sense, she said.

“Moving the capital is not the only way to address inequality or uneven development. The creation of a new capital [should not be seen] as a panacea to uneven development, because it is not.”

Additional reporting by Gigi Choy and Andre Barahamin