Myanmar coup: US sanctions seen as no big deal without Asia’s support, say analysts

Without India, Japan and Myanmar’s fellow Asean members, Washington’s ability to punish the junta for seizing power looks limited

Business interests, non-interference policies and an unwillingness to burn bridges could hinder Asian neighbours from taking meaningful action

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A protester in Tokyo holds a placard demanding the release of elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a rally against Myanmar’s military coup on Thursday. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:20pm, 11 Feb 2021Updated: 9:25pm, 11 Feb 2021

With the United States announcing plans to reimpose sanctions on Myanmar over a coup earlier this month, analysts said the Southeast Asian nation’s new junta will not be as isolated as previous iterations, with India, its Asean neighbours and Japan unlikely to cut ties given the country’s strategic importance.

While the leaders of Malaysia and Indonesia have called for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to convene a special meeting to discuss Myanmar, a member state, it is unclear whether the bloc would come together to take meaningful action.

Asean has long operated on a principle of non-interference in each other’s affairs and its decisions are made by consensus, meaning it would take just a single member, possibly Myanmar itself, to block any move it sees as hostile.

Following the coup, Brunei, the current Asean chair, issued a statement calling for the “pursuance of dialogue, reconciliation and the return to normalcy in accordance with the will and interests of the people of Myanmar”.

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a retired general who himself seized power in a military coup in 2014, told reporters on Wednesday he had received a letter from Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, asking for Thailand’s support for “the democracy in Myanmar”. The letter was not disclosed to the media.