Asia’s planned travel bubbles burst by Delta variant as some governments cling to ‘zero Covid’ strategy
- The travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore has never been established while an agreement between Australia and New Zealand has been stop-start
- The patchy track record underscores how tough it will be for Asia to return to normal, particularly if certain countries are unwilling to tolerate any new cases
“Inter-regional travel is so important in Asia-Pacific and everyone is watching each other at the moment,” said Gary Bowerman, director of travel and tourism research firm Check-in Asia. “Generally there just seems to be low levels of trust, very different rates of vaccination, very different rates of managing Covid-19.”
That, in turn, makes forward planning extremely hard for airlines in Asia, he said, adding: “The government regulations, the rules, the border issues – they keep changing all the time.”
The correlation between higher rates of inoculation and foreign travel is already starting to show up in the data. International capacity remains weak in countries where vaccination rates are low, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, according to flight tracking firm OAG.
With several nations in Asia unable to secure sufficient vaccine supply, containment via strict lockdowns has become many governments’ default response. A poll last week by OAG found that about half of respondents think a travel recovery in Asia will only happen by July 2022, another full year away.
“Personally, I think that’s verging on the optimistic,” said John Grant, chief analyst with OAG. “Asia is a real worry. Summer 2023 is a more realistic assessment.”
Globally, the picture continues to improve. With school out in Europe, the Olympics about to get under way in Japan (albeit without spectators) and Indonesia gradually recovering from its latest Covid spike, aviation capacity climbed 2.3 percentage points over the past week. It stands around 70 per cent of 2019 levels.
European Union states have recorded a steady pickup since last month, and have so far managed to keep travel links mostly open within the bloc. International visits are rising, too, with the number of travellers from the US to Greece, Spain and Italy tripling over the past two months.
The UK was set to join the rebound on July 19, the country’s so-called Freedom Day, when most internal restrictions were lifted and fully vaccinated British travellers returning from medium-risk countries – including most of the EU – no longer were required to quarantine. But a surprise retightening of the rules applied to those returning from France spoiled the reopening.
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Another potential stumbling block for the recovery in Asia-Pacific is what restrictions countries will place on visitors based on the vaccine they’ve received.
These questions are posing challenges for airlines as they try to make plans for the future, according to Bryan Foong, chief strategy officer at Malaysia Airlines.
“We need a consistent framework across the globe” to make travel as convenient as possible, he told a CAPA Live webinar last week.
AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes was more forthright, labelling Australia a “hermit kingdom” and saying it will be very painful for European and American travellers to come to Asia.
“You can say Australia has managed itself very well from a health perspective, but no one wants to take a vaccine in Australia because there are no cases. There’s no incentive to take one. And now there’s an overreaction,” Fernandes said in reference to the country’s most recent lockdown that’s snared Sydney, Darwin, Perth, Melbourne and now other parts of New South Wales.
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Knee-jerk reactions, snap lockdowns and case flare-ups are frustrating politicians and regular folk alike. Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said in a Facebook post that like many others, he felt disappointed and frustrated about the recent Covid-19 cases at karaoke lounges.
“It’s an enduring holding pattern and there seems to be no end to it,” Bowerman said.