China warns of increase in disease, pests in rice crops, potentially impacting production across Asia

Rice production is under threat in parts of Asia from higher fertiliser costs at a time when demand is increasing, posing a potential risk to food security and efforts to contain inflation.

China, the largest rice grower, has warned of a higher incidence of pests and diseases in its crop this year, with some provinces reporting an almost 10 per cent increase in the area affected. Vietnam, a top shipper, said high freight and production costs are challenges, even as exports rose in the first half.

Crop yields may decline in Thailand, the world’s second-largest exporter, because of elevated prices for crop nutrients, according to a research unit of Kasikornbank Pcl, while in the Philippines, the No. 2 importing country, a lower harvest is likely to increase the need for overseas purchases. China’s worried about the crop impact of pests, while India’s output depends on a good monsoon.

Most of the world’s rice is grown and eaten in Asia, making it vital for political and economic stability in the region. In contrast to the surge in wheat and corn prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rice has been subdued, but there is no guarantee it will remain so. Back in 2008, prices soared above US$1,000 a ton, more than double the level now, amid a panic over supplies.

Much is riding on the rice crop in India, which ships about 40 per cent of the world’s exports of the staple. “Global supply is at risk, but for now we still have massive Indian availability that is reining in prices,” said V. Subramanian, vice-president at The Rice Trader, a researcher and conference organiser.

India has already limited wheat exports, which the world was counting on to ease tight supplies, saying its food security was under threat. There’s concern that rice may be next on the list, though the prospects for that depend on the monsoon rains and harvest this season. So far the monsoon is progressing normally.