Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country – but only for the next 20 years or so

Slowing birth rates mean Southeast Asia’s largest economy is set to slip down global population rankings over the next two decades

By 2045, authorities expect the country to be home to some 324 million people – placing it behind both Nigeria and Pakistan

2-MIN READ2-MIN

People queue at a bus station in Jakarta last summer. Indonesia is set to lose its title as the world’s fourth-most populous nation by 2045. Photo: AFP

Published: 10:34am, 17 May 2023Updated: 3:32pm, 17 May 2023

Indonesia is set to lose its title as the world’s fourth-most populous nation by 2045 amid slowing birth rates, according to the Ministry of National Planning.

A recent survey the ministry conducted with the statistics agency indicates Indonesia’s population growth will slow to 0.4 per cent in 2045, from 1.17 per cent last year. That means, in the next 22 years, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy will be home to 324 million people, placing the country behind Nigeria and Pakistan in the demographic ranking.

“Our population growth is slowing down every year with the average annual growth at 0.67 per cent in the period of 2020-2050,” Planning Minister Suharso Monoarfa said on Tuesday.

Supporters of Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan clash with security forces amid violent protests against his arrest this month. The South Asian nation’s population is set to overtake Indonesia’s within the coming decades. Photo: EPA-EFE

The finding reflects the major population shift happening across the globe, especially as incomes change and birth rates slow in middle-income nations. China lost its title as the world’s most populous nation to India, amid Beijing reporting its population shrank for the first time in six decades last year.

Indonesia has been counting on its demographic dividend – the economic growth potential from having a larger share of working-age people – to escape the so-called “middle-income trap” and achieve its goal of turning into a high income country by 2045.

The government has introduced a family planning campaign that would help not only in bringing down the fertility rate, but also improving the quality of human capital such as health, education and employment.

The proportion of Indonesians aged over 65 years old is estimated to rise to 14.6 per cent in 2045, from 6.2 per cent in 2020. Productive-age citizens, between the ages 15 and 64, will decline to 65.8 per cent from 69.3 per cent in the same period.