The last mile for Taiwan's presidential hopeful Dr Tsai Ing-wen

On the night of November 29, Dr Tsai Ing-wen led party bigwigs in offering a deep bow of gratitude to supporters after her opposition Democratic Progressive Party won by a landslide in the local elections. Refusing to be carried away by victory, she stressed that "the DPP must remain vigilant as if walking on thin ice" and it ought to "see the Kuomintang's defeat as a big warning". Observers say it is this skill of insisting on political humility that will be key to ensuring she remains the front runner in the 2016 presidential election. But they fear she also faces two big challenges if she is to lead Taiwan: steering the DPP's cross-strait policy to prepare itself to become the ruling party and building trust with both the United States and the mainland. Domestically, the chairwoman, 58, must also deal with a political divide that has riven the island for decades - something that has been a constant drag on the KMT government. In the November 29 polls, capitalising on public dissatisfaction over the poor showing of the KMT government headed by President Ma Ying-jeou, the DPP won 13 cities and counties, including four key municipalities. It was the DPP's best showing since its founding in 1986. With wins in Taichung and Changhua, it was also the first time that the DPP's influence had spread from its traditional strongholds in southern Taiwan to central Taiwan. It also captured Hsinchu City and Taoyuan municipality in northern Taiwan. Those victories, plus its alliance with surgeon, Taipei mayor-elect Ko Wen-je, who beat his KMT opponent Sean Lien Sheng-wen - son of KMT honorary chairman Lien Chan - in the Taipei race, mean the DPP's local governments now surround the central government. "When mobilised, these DPP-controlled local constituencies definitely would exercise their utmost function in facilitating the DPP candidate in winning the top post in 2016," said political scientist Shih Cheng-feng, professor of National Dong Hwa University. The KMT, hit hard by a series of protests against a service trade pact with the mainland, a food safety scare, missteps in education reform and worries over class and income inequality, suffered its biggest setback since coming to power on the island 65 years ago. It won just six cities and counties, down from the 15 it previously controlled. Even its political star, New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu Li-luan, seen as one of the KMT's presidential hopes for 2016, was only able to hold on by winning 50.06 per cent against his DPP opponent, former premier Yu Shyi-kun. "Such a result has badly hurt Chu not only in terms of popularity, but also the possibility of becoming the KMT's unchallenged hopeful in the 2016 poll," said Wang Yeh-li, professor of political science at National Taiwan University. Although some pundits said the DPP's stunning victory was more about voters rejecting the KMT than supporting the DPP, the result nonetheless entrenched Tsai's status as the "only sun" in the DPP. "Just seven months ago, Tsai and then DPP chairman Su Tseng-chang were known as 'two suns' within the DPP, but after the local elections, Tsai is the sole sun, unchallenged by even William Lai Ching-te and Chen Chu," said political scientist George Tsai Wei, a professor at Chinese Culture University in Taipei. Lai and Chen were seen as the two biggest gainers in the November 29 polls in their defences of their mayoral posts in Tainan and Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan. They have often been seen as likely hopefuls from the DPP in the 2016 polls. "But the 64-year-old Chen has many times said she has no ambition for the top post and is willing for whoever from the DPP to gain the post," Professor Tsai said, adding that Lai, 55, still needed central government training before he could take the next step. Analysts said that if Tsai were to represent the DPP in running for president in 2016, she would need to make clear her view of cross-strait relations and elucidate the DPP's cross-strait policy. "What is most important is whether she is able to convince the public in Taiwan and officials in the United States, as well as those on the mainland, that she is able to maintain cross-strait stability," Professor Tsai said. The pro-independence platform of the DPP and its reluctance to recognise the "one China" framework and the 1992 consensus has caused tension with the mainland. There have been calls by several DPP politicians to freeze or temporarily set aside the platform but no decision has been made yet. Asked recently about the DPP's cross-strait policy, Tsai was careful not to be boxed in. She said "the DPP will find the best approach, but whether it should be a soft approach or not, the DPP will listen to the public voices carefully before producing a proper cross-strait policy". Since coming into power in 2008, Ma has tried to set the tone for the two sides - once bitter rivals since the end of a civil war in 1949 - to improve relations, by saying it is necessary for Taiwan to acknowledge that there is only one China, but that there can be different interpretations of what that China stands for. But the DPP has steadfastly refused to recognise either the consensus or the "one China" framework which, analysts say, will make it difficult for Tsai to change its cross-strait policy. Lin Cheng-yi, research fellow at Academia Sinica, the island's top academic institution, said the DPP's uncompromising position could become the cause of new cross-strait tensions if Tsai were elected president. Mainland President Xi Jinping "might become the first Chinese leader to meet [cross-strait] tension in the middle of his first term," he said, adding Beijing might be forced to "issue a warning to the DPP about the serious implications of deviating from the 1992 consensus". But Yu Keli, former director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Beijing was already prepared for Tsai to become the Taiwanese president in 2016. "Beijing authorities believe dealing with Tsai should be easier than dealing with Chen Shui-bian," Yu said. Chen, now serving a 20-year jail sentence for corruption, upset both Washington and Beijing by repeatedly pushing the envelope in promoting independence for the island. This led to escalating tensions across the strait in the last years of Chen's administration between 2000 and 2008. According to the DPP, Tsai is planning to visit the United States in February, when she is expected to exchange views with US officials on the DPP's cross-strait policy. Tsai visited the United States in 2011 ahead of her presidential bid the following year. Local news media said then that she had failed to convince Washington she would be able to maintain cross-strait stability. When conceding defeat to Ma, who won re-election in 2012, Tsai labelled this failure as the "last mile" that both she and her party had been unable to reach. Looking ahead, George Tsai said: "But if Tsai is unable to prove that her or her party's policy is something that can uphold cross-strait stability, that same last mile would remain her Achilles' heel in the 2016 poll."

The last mile for Taiwan's presidential hopeful Dr Tsai Ing-wen

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Taiwan's presidential hopeful Dr Tsai Ing-wen must prove the DPP could maintain cross-strait stability - or face a repeat of her loss in 2012

Taiwan's presidential hopeful Dr Tsai Ing-wen must prove the DPP could maintain cross-strait stability - or face a repeat of her loss in 2012