US farm sales to China could hit pre-trade war level by 2020 election
- China aiming to buy at least US$20 billion of agricultural products in a year if it signs partial trade deal with the US
- USDA reported sale of 264,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for delivery in 2019/20 marketing year
US farmers may return to pre-trade war levels of sales to China in time for the presidential election year, relieving economic pressure on one of President Donald Trump’s key political constituencies as he campaigns for a second term and fights an impeachment inquiry.
But the bonanza of US$40 billion to US$50 billion in annual agricultural sales to China Trump promoted when he announced a tentative partial trade deal on October 11 will almost certainly have to wait until after the presidential vote, if it ever comes. And China’s added purchases also come with strings attached.
China aims to buy at least US$20 billion of agricultural products in a year if it signs a partial trade deal with the US, and would consider boosting purchases further in future rounds of talks, people familiar with the matter said.
That would take China’s imports of US farm goods back to around 2017 levels, before Trump began a tit-for-tat tariff feud with Beijing.
In the second year of a potential final deal, purchases could rise to US$40 billion to US$50 billion. But that would depend on Trump removing remaining punitive tariffs, said the people, who asked not to be named because the talks are private.