Uncertain future as Covid-19 infection rate sets global records
- Experts reluctant to predict the course of the pandemic as some countries ease lockdowns and Beijing suffers new outbreak
- What happens next will depend on response, but without vaccine it may be years before virus runs its course
China, where the coronavirus was first identified at the end of last year, had earlier locked down a region of 60 million people and shut its borders to foreigners to control the disease. Even after those stringent measures, the virus surfaced again in the capital.
Consequently, epidemiologists and other specialists in disease control are reluctant to make a call on whether global infections are set to peak and then decline, or whether the coming months will see a surge or even a second wave.
“Over the next six months we could see as many cases as we’ve seen in the first six months, or in extreme circumstances perhaps even more,” said John Mathews, an honorary professor at the University of Melbourne’s School of Population and Global Health.
“It depends on how responsive people are and how responsive the governments are,” said Mathews, a former deputy chief medical officer to the Australian government.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, was more blunt.
He said people had to realise they were in the early stages as far as getting anywhere near to the 60 to 70 per cent “herd immunity” level needed to stop the pandemic’s spread.