WTO revises global trade forecast higher, as stimulus keeps demand intact and China dominates exports
- Global merchandise trade is expected to rise by 8 per cent this year
- WTO officials warn that the lopsided distribution of vaccines globally presents the biggest risk to a full recovery in global trade
Global merchandise trade is expected to rise by 8 per cent this year, making up for a decline last year caused by the coronavirus pandemic as stimulus in the US and other countries has kept demand intact, the World Trade Organization (WTO) announced on Wednesday.
The WTO’s growth forecast, in which China accounts for the lion’s share of global exports, was increased from a previous estimate of 7.2 per cent, while it pegged the full-year 2020 decline at 5.3 per cent, which was less severe than the 9.2 per cent drop estimated in October.
China’s exports of US$2.6 trillion worth of goods last year represented a 4 per cent increase on year, compared with US$1.4 trillion worth of exports from the US, the second-largest exporter, which saw a 13 per cent drop.
“China has been supplying a lot of the goods in 2020 that demand held up quite well for,” including surgical masks and other medical supplies, said senior WTO economist Coleman Nee.
03:04
Stranded Ever Given partially refloated after blocking Egypt’s Suez Canal for nearly a week
“Then there’s also electronics, which China is a major exporter of, and because of increased work remote work and businesses making allowances for working remotely, there’s been a lot of upgrading of equipment in that regard,” he said.