Can Germany’s political kingmakers sway China policy in the post-Angela Merkel era?
- Polling before Sunday’s vote shows the possibility of a coalition government of three parties, with two of them pushing an aggressive policy on China
- Both business and political interests voice regret about the lack of foreign policy debate, including on China, during the election campaign
This is the second in a two-part series on the China policies of the leading candidates to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel. Here, Finbarr Bermingham looks at looks at the China policies of the potential coalition kingmakers, the Greens and Free Democratic Party.
In May, the German Green Party took a narrow polling lead for the federal election to be held this coming Sunday, on a ticket promising a radical reform of the country’s China policy.
Five months on, the party has fallen back to third in the polls, but the prospect of Greens playing a role in government still keeps some in Beijing awake at night.
“Two generations of Chinese leaders were very happy with Angela Merkel – they will miss her very much. The prospect of a Green Party win makes Beijing very nervous,” said Gu Xuewe, director of the Centre for Global Studies at the University of Bonn.
Nine points behind the leading Social Democratic Party (SPD), the chances of Green candidate Annalena Baerbock succeeding Merkel, who has been chancellor for 16 years, are remote. So too is the idea a major overhaul in Germany’s China policy, with both establishment parties, the SPD and Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), set to deliver minor geopolitical tweaks.
02:56
Germany presses China on Hong Kong security law, seeks access to Uygurs in Xinjiang
But in maybe the most open German election in modern history, the Greens and their pro-business rivals, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), are still expected to be kingmakers in a three-way coalition.