China’s answer to Aukus alliance? More rhetoric, more intimidation tactics and more weapons
- A core strategy, say military experts, is to raise the cost of US defence of Taiwan by consolidating the Chinese grip over contested South China Sea islands
- Despite Beijing’s criticism of new or revived American coalitions, its own belligerence has played a big role in moving Western and Asian allies closer together
In response to a new Anglo-Saxon military alliance and more US-designed nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing will likely step up efforts to avoid encirclement and expand its own nuclear submarine fleet, according to current and former officials and military experts.
The defence build-up on both sides comes amid louder, if still relatively faint, drums of war around Taiwan, lending greater immediacy to the new alliance and spotlighting broader Chinese, US and allied regional defence strategies.
In September, Australia, the United Kingdom and the US (Aukus) announced an alliance involving submarines and a range of cutting-edge military technologies. Simultaneously, Canberra shelved a US$66 billion French diesel submarine deal in favour of some eight US nuclear-powered submarines, angering Paris.
“Chinese strategy has tried to make geography a virtue, particularly with Taiwan,” said Thomas Mahnken, president of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments think tank. “But it’s also true that China’s access to the broader Pacific Ocean is hemmed in by archipelagos.”
“With Aukus, the three governments have agreed,” said Mahnken, a former senior Pentagon official. “Now it’s incumbent on them to make it work.”
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US, UK, Australia announce ‘historic’ military partnership in Pacific
As Congress and the administration have elevated support for Taiwan, capped by a Republican congressional visit this month, Beijing has stepped up its rhetoric and intimidation tactics, holding combat readiness drills in waters abutting Taiwan and sending scores of J-16 fighters, H-6 long-range bombers, anti-submarine and surveillance aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence zone.