Opinion | Why China’s worsening demographic situation will impact economic prospects for decades to come
- Based on the experiences of other countries, China would have faced a decline in its population anyway, even without state involvement in ‘family planning’
- Beijing doesn’t like candid discussions about the country’s population trend, labelling them as ‘bad mouthing’ the country’s bright future
China’s demographic situation is worsening at an alarming rate, spelling trouble for the country’s economic prospects for decades to come.
While an ageing population and falling fertility rates are not unique to China, the country’s demographic changes are happening at a speed and scale unseen in any other country. It is partly a result of the ruthless implementation of the one-child policy that ran from the late 1970s to the early 2010s, a massive state-engineered project that Chinese authorities try very hard not to mention any more.
Based on the experiences of other countries, China would have faced an ageing population and falling births anyway, but the state’s involvement in “family planning” – which involved hefty fines and forced abortions – has only made the problem more severe.
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China tackles challenges posed by its ageing population
The reality is that, as the provincial government of Anhui has admitted, China’s new birth rates are “falling off a cliff”. A growing number of Chinese scholars and economists are saying that 2021 will see the peak of the country’s population growth, even when citing China’s official data.
In other words, China will officially have more deaths than births for the first time this year. China’s shrinking population could last many decades before the trend reverses – if there’s any reversal at all.
The trend will have a far-reaching impact on everything in China – from Beijing’s ambitions of creating a powerful socialist country, to the sustainability of the property market and schooling system.