Despite Russian claims of withdrawals, Joe Biden says Ukraine invasion is still ‘distinctly possible’
- American analysts have not verified Moscow’s reports that some Russian forces were returning to their home bases, according to US president
- Nato leader Jens Stoltenberg also says he has not seen ‘any sign of de-escalation on the ground’
Russian officials said earlier on Tuesday that some forces were returning to their home bases after completing military drills, releasing video footage purporting to show tanks being loaded onto railway cars.
“That would be good, but we have not yet verified that,” Biden said during a televised address to the nation. “Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position.”
More than 150,000 troops were still stationed near Ukraine and Belarus, said Biden, an increase of previous US intelligence estimates of around 130,000.
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His comments followed the release of commercial satellite imagery by US-based Maxar Technologies that appeared to indicate new deployments of Russian attack helicopters and fighter-bomber jets to positions near the Ukrainian border.
Washington’s scepticism about Russia’s claims of a drawdown was shared by officials in Ukraine and Nato, with the security alliance’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, saying on Tuesday that he had not seen “any sign of de-escalation on the ground”.
“Invasion remains distinctly possible,” said Biden. “That’s why I’ve asked several times that all Americans in Ukraine leave now, before it’s too late to leave safely.”
Despite the warnings, Biden stressed that Washington stood ready to give “diplomacy every chance to succeed” and welcomed indications from Moscow that it was willing to pursue further talks.
But he stressed that Russia’s core demands, including a halt to Nato’s expansion, remained an “unconditional priority” for the Kremlin. The request that Ukraine be barred from joining the security alliance is considered a non-starter by the US and Nato.
While the US has proposed new arms control and strategic stability measures in its talks with Russia, it will not “sacrifice basic principles,” Biden said. “Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
He also repeated warnings that the US and allies were prepared to unleash sweeping economic sanctions against Moscow, saying an invasion would be a “war without cause or reason” that would come at severe human cost for Ukraine and “immense” strategic cost for Russia.
“The world will not forget that Russia chose needless death and destruction,” said Biden. “Invading Ukraine will prove to be a self-inflicted wound.”
US officials have repeatedly said that Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine – as well as Western nations’ response – has implications for geopolitical tensions elsewhere, with US Secretary of State Blinken warning last week that “others are looking to all of us to see how we respond”.
“This is about more than just Russia and Ukraine,” Biden said on Tuesday. “It’s about standing for what we believe in,” including “the principle that a country can’t change its neighbours’ borders by force”.
While neither Biden nor Blinken singled out Beijing in public, administration officials are concerned that China is watching Washington’s handling of the crisis as a bellwether for its potential response to military aggression against Taiwan by Beijing, Bloomberg reported.
China has stood beside Moscow, including through a joint statement earlier this month in which both sides expressed opposition to the expansion of Nato.
China’s “tacit support, if you will, for Russia is deeply alarming, and frankly even more destabilising to the security situation in Europe”, US Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Monday.
Responding on Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that “exaggerating and hyping up the possibility of warfare is not responsible behaviour,” and criticised the US and its allies over their readiness to impose sanctions on Moscow.
“The irony is that this crisis that he’s manufactured has actually pulled Nato together, reinvigorated its sense of purpose and importance and buy-in across the board,” Flournoy said on Tuesday. “He’s managed to create his own worst nightmare in pursuing this course of action.”
Additional reporting by Jacob Fromer in Washington
