Two finalists in race for British PM unlikely to lead to big changes in Sino-UK relations
- Former chancellor Rishi Sunak viewed as more pragmatic on China, with Foreign Secretary Liz Truss seen as more hawkish
- Bilateral relationship has deteriorated since ‘golden era’ of investment and cooperation under former prime minister David Cameron
On Wednesday night, the field of candidates to succeed Johnson as prime minister was reduced to two candidates from an initial eight, with a new leader expected to be chosen by members of the ruling Conservative Party in early September.
Both candidates have previously talked of the need to have a “hard-headed” approach when it comes to China, with Truss often described as the most hawkish member of Johnson’s cabinet on China.
At the time, British prime minister David Cameron and Osborne were lobbying for greater access to China’s financial markets by City of London firms and hoping Chinese investment could help fuel the “Northern Powerhouse”, a programme designed to revive former industrial areas in the north of England.
Johnson, who replaced Theresa May as prime minister three years ago, has tried to strike a delicate balance with Beijing as the UK seeks new trade deals and economic relationships following its exit from the European Union in January 2020 against a backdrop of rising national security and geopolitical concerns.
Last year, Johnson even described himself as “fervently Sinophile” at a round table discussion with Chinese business leaders in a bid to strengthen trade ties with the world’s second-biggest economy.
That dual approach of trying to strike a balance on economic opportunities while keeping Beijing in check on geopolitical issues is not expected to change dramatically no matter who takes over at 10 Downing Street, analysts said.
“I would caution very strongly against the idea that these two politicians are sort of diametrical opposites,” said Rana Mitter, a professor at the University of Oxford and expert on the history and politics of modern China.
Truss is perceived as being more hardline on China, but, as prime minister, she would have to engage with Beijing on a variety of issues where China is central to global politics, such as climate change, international norms on cyberspace and 5G technology and the trans-Pacific trade pact, Mitter said.
“While she will make her own views on human rights and related issues very clear, this will not add up to any kind of policy that ends up with a significant overall decoupling from China simply because a whole variety of UK government goals are tied to having some sort of ongoing dialogue or relationship with China,” he said.
Sunak has been more optimistic publicly about Sino-British economic dialogue and leveraging the City of London as an international financial centre, but, as prime minister, would have to speak strongly on areas such as national security technology.
“He will need to make more statements on human rights issues, such as the Hong Kong security law or labour camps in Xinjiang,” Mitter said. “These sorts of things are not things a financial minister is particularly expected to make comments about, but a prime minister would be certainly pressed to do so.”
Sunak, 42, has been portrayed in China as the most pragmatic of the leadership candidates, with Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid, reporting Sino-British ties “might improve” under his leadership.
Sunak, who served as chancellor from 2020 until earlier this month, called for a more nuanced approach to China in a speech in the City of London last year, saying Britain needed to bolster its economic relationship with Beijing.
Li Guanjie, a researcher at the Centre for British Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, said Sino-British relations have a chance to improve if Sunak becomes prime minister.
However, Beijing must be prepared, as the UK’s view of China as a competitor was not likely to change under Sunak and he could be “tough on China economically”, Li said.
“We must beware of his possible pragmatic and tough attitude towards China,” Li said.
Truss, 46, is seen by many political observers as more hawkish on China. As foreign secretary she has called out Beijing on Hong Kong and other issues.
Born in Oxford in 1975, her father was a mathematics professor and her mother a teacher and a nurse. She went to secondary school in Leeds and studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford. She worked in the telecommunications and energy sectors before entering politics in 2010.
Before becoming foreign secretary last year, she served in a number of roles in government under three different prime ministers, including education secretary, justice secretary and trade secretary.
“By talking about the rise of China as inevitable we are doing China’s work for it,” she said. “In fact, their rise isn’t inevitable. They will not continue to rise if they don’t play by the rules.”
“We have called out their conduct on the world stage and stood together with our G7 partners in condemning the steady erosion of political and civil rights and Hong Kong’s autonomy,” Truss said in June.
That has not sat well with officials in Beijing or Hong Kong.
Given her consistently hawkish positions on issues from Taiwan to Hong Kong in recent years, Truss would be “a real pain” for China if she becomes prime minister, according to Jonathan Sullivan, director of China programmes at the Asia Research Institute at the University of Nottingham.
“She has a hard line on basically every issue related to China,” he said.
Sunak was more moderate and possibly open to trying to reverse the negative momentum in Sino-British relations, but could face difficulty in convincing his fellow Conservative Party members, who are “pretty down on China right now”, Sullivan said.
“Indeed, China has achieved the rare feat of uniting all the major parties,” he said. “So even a Sunak PM is not going to suddenly put relations back on an upwards trajectory.”