New Chinese premier pick could mean ‘more continuity than change’ in economic policies, says analyst

Attention to opaque selection process of Beijing’s top leadership has intensified as Xi solidifies grip and US-China ties fray
Choice of premier thought to signal Chinese leader’s ‘primary needs or his political policy considerations’

US-China relations

Kinling Loin Washington

Published: 6:20am, 5 Oct 2022

Why you can trust SCMP

The choice of China’s new premier could indicate “more continuity than change” in Beijing’s economic policies when the country’s next leadership line-up is unveiled later this month, according to a leading US-based expert on the matter.

Speaking in Washington on Tuesday, Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution offered his analysis of the 20th Party Congress slated to take place in Beijing on October 16.

President Xi Jinping is widely expected to secure an unprecedented third term at the most significant political gathering in decades of China’s Communist Party. But the composition of the rest of the nation’s top leadership body – now a seven-member Standing Committee – has been the subject of extensive speculation.

Many overseas China experts, including Li, have cautioned that trying to divine the line-up every five years is difficult. Yet they believed attention had intensified over the opaque selection process for the next batch of top Chinese officials due to Xi’s status as the paramount party leader and a deterioration in US-China relations.

“Personnel is policy,” Li said. “Whoever becomes premier actually signals Xi Jinping’s primary needs or his political policy considerations.”

China’s current premier, Li Keqiang, is expected to retire. The role traditionally oversees what is the world’s second-largest economy, which in recent years has been plagued by slower growth and challenges stemming from Covid-19 lockdowns.

Li of the Brookings Institution identified four viable candidates for the premiership: Han Zheng, Hu Chunhua, Liu He and Wang Yang. Han and Wang are both Standing Committee members, while Hu and Liu sit in the 25-member Politburo, China’s second most important policymaking body.

The four are regarded as contenders because each previously served as vice-premier, a prerequisite to ascend to premier since China’s first one, Zhou Enlai, according to Li.

“The margin of likelihood of who will become premier among these four people is not huge … probably more likely [to be] the first two, than the latter two,” he added.

Li said if Han were to become premier, that would indicate a continuation of current policies. But the promotion of Hu would suggest a call for unity in the party as he is known to hail from a faction outside Xi’s.

Choosing Liu, who made his name as Xi’s chief economic adviser and a negotiator in US-China trade war talks during former US president Donald Trump’s administration, would represent an appeal to international popularity, Li said.

Meanwhile, if Wang, known for his pro-market and liberal economic policies as the party chief of Guangdong province, were to be selected, it would mark a “drastic policy change”.

“[M]ore political reform … more market reform, are we going to see that? I do not see that,” Li said. “I would rather say that there will be more continuity than change. But who knows?”

Party congress to zero in on China’s direction for next 5 years – and beyond

The China analyst also did not think the unwritten convention often referred to as the “seven up and eight down” rule – those aged 68 retire while those as old as 67 could be promoted – would apply to the Standing Committee candidates. For this reason he still viewed Han, 68, and Liu, 70, as potential premiers.

“We used to look at term limits, age limits … but now none of that matters,” said Li. “Now the analysis is made by analysing and following Xi Jinping’s trail of thoughts.”

Li said Li Zhanshu, 72, the third-ranking member of the Standing Committee, could become vice-president, succeeding Wang Qishan, Xi’s right-hand man who stayed on the political stage despite reaching the age of 69 during the last party congress in 2017.

Speaking on the possibility of seeing a successor to Xi in the next Standing Committee, Li believed it was likely the Chinese leader would be deliberately ambiguous.

Xi warns Communist Party to prepare for ‘great struggles’

But Li said the standing committee’s composition could see four first-timers and include as many as nine members.

Given Xi’s emphasis on projecting China’s rising stature on the world stage, officials with a background in the aerospace and aviation industries were worth watching, Li added.

“They are a very powerful group … and Xi certainly thinks they are less political at the moment.”

The Chinese leader has stated Beijing seeks to be self-reliant in technological and scientific development amid deepening competition with Washington and a growing sense of US-China decoupling economically.

‘Nobody can replace China’, so why are US companies reassessing options?

In addition, Li highlighted the potential promotions of Xinjiang party secretary Ma Xingrui, Zhejiang party secretary Yuan Jiajun, and Hunan party secretary Zhang Qingwei.

Ma and Zhang each previously served as chief commander of China’s Shenzhou space programme, and Yuan held key positions in China’s lunar and Mars exploration programmes.

“I think at least two of these three will enter the Politburo,” Li said, adding that Ma had the greatest chance of rising to even higher levels among the three.

What does it take to get promoted in Chinese politics? Up-and-comers offer clues

Looking ahead at Xi’s remaining time in office, Li said a fourth term would depend on how the next five years turn out. He thought Xi was only considering two more terms.

“I do not buy the argument that Xi Jinping plans to stay there forever,” he said. Yet Li did not think Xi’s successor would be named in mid-October.

“His plan at the moment is for 10 years,” Li said of Xi. “He does not want to be a lame duck, and I think it is fair that he wants to test the successor, test himself and the political establishment.”