China unlikely to seize Taiwan in invasion but heavy losses for both sides, plus US and Japan: think tank

War game findings for hypothetical 2026 invasion put total casualties in tens of thousands in ‘pyrrhic victory’ for Washington and its allies

Project did not explore effects such losses might have on Chinese politics, but Communist Party would risk hold on power, report says

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People’s Liberation Army warplanes flying around Taiwan during combat training exercises last August. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 7:00am, 10 Jan 2023Updated: 12:20am, 11 Jan 2023

Beijing is unlikely to succeed in seizing Taiwan in a hypothetical invasion of the island in 2026, but such a conflict would wreak havoc on both sides of the strait, the US and Japan with total casualties running in the tens of thousands, according to the latest estimate by an influential American think tank.

Washington must quickly engage in direct combat if it decided to defend Taiwan as there would be no “Ukraine model” whereby the US and its allies could avoid sending their troops to the battlefield, warned a report published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies on Monday.

In “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan”, the authors cautioned the US might experience “a pyrrhic victory” in which it was likely to suffer more in the long run than “the ‘defeated’ Chinese”.

The CSIS report comes as the Taiwan issue has proved a continuing point of friction between the two sides of the Pacific.

China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has said it will eventually unite the island with the mainland, by force if necessary.