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US-China relations
China

China’s economic slump gives US a chance to gain clout with countries indebted to Beijing: analysts

  • Beijing unlikely to overtake US ‘in any significant measure of economic power’ in next two decades, influential Washington advisory panel hears
  • Private-sector lending for Global South infrastructure projects should be encouraged as alternative to Chinese financing, witnesses testify

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Logan Wright of Rhodium Group testifies in Washington on Monday that since 2020 about US$78 billion worth of China’s external loans through its Belt and Road Initiative are either in default or under renegotiation.
Robert DelaneyandAmber Wangin Washington

China’s “still widely underappreciated” economic downturn reduces the likelihood that it will overtake the US in the next 20 years and gives Washington an opportunity to gain influence over countries that have become indebted to Beijing, an influential US government advisory panel was told on Monday.

“The severity of China’s ongoing economic weakness is still widely underappreciated, and the United States no longer faces a growth challenge from China,” Logan Wright of risk consultancy Rhodium Group said in a US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) hearing in Washington.

“Beijing is no longer an economic pacing threat or likely to overtake the United States in any significant measure of economic power in the next two decades,” Logan said.

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Nicholas Borst of Seafarer Capital Partners, an investment advisory group, testified that the country was now “in danger of losing economic momentum” due to the government’s crackdown on the private sector and lack of planning for the post-coronavirus pandemic era, among other policy missteps.
Zongyuan Zoe Liu of the Council on Foreign Relations testifies at the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing in Washington on Monday.
Zongyuan Zoe Liu of the Council on Foreign Relations testifies at the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing in Washington on Monday.
“The Chinese government is likely to be intensely focused on efforts to address its own internal economic challenges over the next several years,” Borst said. “The [Chinese Communist] Party’s efforts to exert greater control over the private sector have damaged some of the most dynamic and innovative parts of the Chinese economy.
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