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Don’t count on Xi Jinping-Joe Biden meeting to yield breakthroughs, provided it happens: analysts
- ‘Deliverables’ at Apec gathering expected to be modest at best, despite recent high-level engagement, due to low level of bilateral trust
- While US eyes better communication, especially on defence, China hopes tariffs and export restrictions ease
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Why you can trust SCMP
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Mark Magnierin New York
Assuming Xi Jinping and Joe Biden finally sit down together next week in San Francisco after a year of posturing, accusations, backchannel signalling and wayward surveillance balloons, the results will be underwhelming.
There is so little trust – a week before the expected meeting, the Chinese had still not formally confirmed Xi’s participation at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit – and so many missed opportunities that the “deliverables” will be modest at best even as both sides downplay expectations.
“Neither the United States nor China are entering the potential meeting between President Biden and President Xi expecting to significantly improve or reset the relationship,” said Bonny Lin of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
“Rather, the meeting will be about managing and stabilising the bilateral relationship, improving communication and reducing misunderstandings before they occur.”
Should talks proceed without a sizeable hitch, a major plus would be the message the two leaders send to their respective bureaucracies, especially China’s with its highly centralised system, that re-engagement, however tepid, is back on the agenda.
“The most important thing [is] it sends a signal to their system that the two sides need to have dialogues, and the rest of the system falls into place,” said Bonny Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a Washington-based think tank. “It might become difficult to do much in the absence of that higher-level meeting.”
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