Micronesia’s ex-leader, urging US funds for Pacific islands and warning of China war, stirs debate

War between Beijing and Washington ‘may become imminent and may become inevitable’ without American lawmakers’ approval of deals, says David Panuelo

Decades-old Compacts of Free Association give US exclusive access to land, water and air of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau

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A view of Majuro, capital of the Marshall Islands. US funding comprises about 70 per cent of the island nation’s GDP. Photo: Shutterstock

Published: 1:45am, 13 Dec 2023Updated: 3:50am, 13 Dec 2023

A bombshell letter Micronesia’s former leader sent to US Vice-President Kamala Harris and House Speaker Mike Johnson warning a Sino-American war could ensue should Congress fail to approve funds for deals between Washington and three Pacific island nations has stirred a debate among Indo-Pacific experts on his claims.

“The war between China and the United States that Admiral John C Aquilino described earlier this year as being ‘not imminent nor inevitable’ may become imminent and may become inevitable, if [Cofa] is not signed this year,” said David Panuelo in his letter on Friday, noting a remark by the American commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command.

The Compacts of Free Association (Cofa) give Washington exclusive access to the land, water and air of the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau to boost American security. In exchange, the island nations receive financial help and their citizens can study, live and work in the US.

An extension of the agreements, signed in the 1980s, needed to happen “this year, not next year”, Panuelo added, saying the deals “might well not exist if you wait any longer” as the countries “face financial cliffs”.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (centre right) meets with (from left) Republic of the Marshall Islands Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Jack Ading, Palau President Surangel Whipps Jnr and Federated States of Micronesia President Wesley Simina on September 26 at the State Department in Washington. Photo: AP

The former Micronesian president said if Congress did not approve the agreements by January 1 it would be “strikingly difficult” for children to attend school and mothers to find prenatal care in hospitals.

He also said food insecurity would “skyrocket” and that importing food and fuel for power generation would become harder.

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