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US-China relations
China

Variety of problems will result in ‘vexing year for China’, says think tank report

  • A key challenge: restoring trust and confidence despite a declining population, battered social safety net, shifting government policies and unnerved investors
  • The Asia Society’s Centre for China Analysis releases ‘China 2024, What to Watch’

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China’s sluggish economy has affected its stock markets. Photo: Bloomberg
Mark Magnierin New York

China faces a host of economic, demographic and geopolitical challenges that will test its people and governance structure in 2024, but is also likely to take a greater leadership role in setting climate targets and expanding its investment and outreach to the Global South, according to a report released on Tuesday by the New York-based Asia Society.

“This is going to be a vexing year for China,” said Bates Gill, executive director of the Centre for China Analysis, which produced “China 2024, What to Watch”. “We’ll see a much, much sharper focus by Beijing to invest in climate resilience and adaptation measures in 2024.”

This is important for Beijing’s national interest, Gill added. “But this is probably also a pathway by which China can help burnish its international reputation, particularly with regard to the developing world.”

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The news this week that property giant Evergrande will be liquidated underscored the continued difficulties that China’s economy is facing this year in a nation where real estate still accounts for 23 per cent of GDP. While Beijing achieved its 5 per cent GDP target last year, and is likely to set a similar target this year, achieving that will be arduous, the report said.

03:23

China posts record-low birth rate despite government push for babies

China posts record-low birth rate despite government push for babies

A key challenge for the government will be to restore trust and confidence, said Jing Qian, the centre’s managing director, no small feat in the face of a declining population, battered social safety net and shifting government policies that have unnerved some investors.

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