Trump seen as top global risk in 2026 as US slips further behind China: Eurasia Group
Forecast warns China’s shift towards an ‘electro-state’ could widen the gap with the US, even as deflation clouds Beijing’s outlook
The US is in danger of falling increasingly behind China in 2026 as the Asian giant tightens its grip on drones, battery storage, robots and manufacturing, although the No 1 risk to global stability is the US under President Donald Trump, Eurasia Group said on Monday in its closely watched annual forecast of threats, challenges and hotspots.
“It’s a time of great geopolitical uncertainty. Not because there’s imminent conflict between the two biggest powers, the United States and China – that isn’t even a top risk,” said Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group’s president and founder.
“The United States is itself unwinding its own global order, the world’s most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution,” he added.
Trump will continue working to dismantle any checks on his power and capture US government machinery to use against his enemies, the group said, although growing economic headwinds could see him ease his aggressive tariff policy.
China, meanwhile, will have secured more of a hold on the global economy as it moves from the world’s most fossil-fuel dependent economic system to the first “electro-state”.
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The report noted that China already produces three-quarters of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, 90 per cent of its neodymium magnets and is the leader in solar panels, wind turbines, EVs and commercial drones.