US tariff ruling points to steadier US–China ties ahead of April summit: analysts
Court decision lowers effective duties, easing tensions and steering Xi-Trump talks towards stability rather than escalation
The legal setback has strengthened China’s negotiating position, bolstered by lowered effective tariffs, its leverage over critical minerals like rare earths, and a more emboldened approach to countermeasures.
With both sides expressing long-term confidence in their economic models and the US pivoting towards maintaining stability, including reliable shipments of key materials, the summit is widely expected to yield tame outcomes focused on extending a fragile truce rather than major concessions.
Sara Schuman, former senior trade representative for China at the Office of the US Trade Representative under Presidents Biden and Trump, pointed to the tariff levelling as a core issue.
China’s effective rate has fallen to around 15 per cent from about 20 per cent following last year’s Busan meeting, putting it on par with other partners.
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“Now basically China’s on a more level playing field with other trading partners. That’s going to create concern among the administration, so I would not be surprised to see if they try to find a way to get China back up to a higher level so that it differentiates from some of the other major trading partners,” Schuman said at the annual Washington International Trade Association conference on Monday.