A heated spat broke out in mid-May over a close encounter between Chinese fighter jets and a US military reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea, which the Pentagon described as “an unsafe intercept”.

That followed Beijing’s denunciation of a US guided missile destroyer’s passage within 12 nautical miles of Fiery Cross Reef, China’s largest man-made island in the disputed waters in one of the world’s busiest trade routes, in a freedom of navigation operation earlier in the month.

Leaders of the Group of Seven leading economies also expressed concerns on Friday over rising maritime tensions in the region without naming China or any other rival claimants by name.

With US President Barack Obama leaving office in January and Sino-US ties facing much uncertainty, analysts say both Beijing and Washington may have limited room to manoeuvre in terms of offering concessions on contentious bilateral issues.

The priority at this year’s talks would, instead, be on containing rising tensions to minimise the likelihood of miscalculations, accidents or serious disruptions in bilateral ties, while also maintaining a robust, high-level communication channel to ensure continued engagement.

In the lead-up to the dialogue, senior diplomats and military officers have launched a flurry of bilateral talks in recent weeks aimed at defusing tensions and mending strained ties.

A Chinese delegation, headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui and the assistant chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, Lieutenant General Ma Yiming, held “candid, constructive discussions” on maritime security issues with their US counterparts in Washington on May 19.

Senior defence officials from both nations also met in Hawaii last week in a bid to seek consensus on avoiding maritime and airspace security mishaps, according to mainland analysts.

With bilateral ties fraught with friction and discord, Professor Jin Canrong, from Renmin University’s school of international studies, said such consensus-building efforts, aimed at establishing a tension control mechanism, were of special significance in defusing Sino-US geopolitical rivalry.

Professor Zhu Feng, a US relations expert at Nanjing University, said: “China and the US may continue to engage in a war of words over the South China Sea issue, but the crux of the meeting should be whether they’ll be able to align with each other to avoid further escalation.”

Dr Zhu Zhiqun, a China expert at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, also said the dialogue was unlikely to offer any breakthrough on the maritime disputes, because “it is a structural problem between the US and China”.

“A more powerful China will naturally be more assertive in defending its national interests, while the US does not tolerate challenges to its dominance by any rival, particularly China, that does not share its ideology and values,” he said. “So the tensions associated with power transition in the international system are unlikely to go away easily.”

Former deputy foreign minister Fu Ying also described the Sino-US relationship as “neither allies nor enemies”. “The South China Sea seems like an outlet for the rivalry and confrontation that are building up of late between China and the US. As a result, the two sides seem to be reassessing each other’s intentions on a strategic level,” she said in an article co-written with Wu Shicun, the president of the Hainan-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, that was published this month.

Despite rifts and often combative rhetoric, China and the US were unlikely to head towards military conflict, said Professor Tao Wenzhao, an American studies specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “The deep-rooted problem of a lack of trust and effective communication is at the heart of the recent tensions,” he said. “That’s why such high-level talks are essential to control their differences.”

Analysts also said the upcoming dialogue, to be co-chaired by Vice-Premier Wang Yang, State Councillor Yang Jiechi, US Secretary of State John Kerry and US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, would touch on a wide range of economic, trade and security issues, including global nuclear and cyber security, combatting terrorism, climate change and anti-corruption cooperation.

Daniel Russel, the US State Department’s Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told a briefing on Tuesday the US would use the occasion to express its concerns, including the South China Sea, China’s management law, human rights issues, cyber security and discriminatory regulations against foreign business.

Jin said: “While the US is likely to take issue with China on the alleged militarisation of the South China Sea, China certainly wants to expand the scope of bilateral cooperation to manage and control growing strategic competition. It’ll be worth it if they can help cool the already tense situation in the South China Sea.”

Cross-strait relations, shrouded in uncertainty since the inauguration of new Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen this month, are also likely to be covered in the dialogue. But Zhu Zhiqun said it would not be a dominant topic because “it is too early to tell what cross-strait relations will be like in the years ahead”.

Analysts also said this year’s dialogue, the eighth and last major bilateral meeting for the Obama administration, needed to take stock of the dialogue mechanism’s successes and failures amid uncertainty over its future.

“I think both sides will need to work on the question of whether the security and economic dialogue should still exist after the inauguration of a new US president next year,” Zhu Feng said. “As Sino-US relations become increasingly complex, such regular high-level talks should be given even more prominence.”

Analysts also agreed that Sino-US ties might face a difficult future.

“The US looks set to get tougher on China with both Democratic and Republican party [presidential] nominees Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump pledging hardline approaches towards Beijing,” Jin said.

But Tao and Zhu Zhiqun both said they believed that no matter who became the next US president, Beijing and Washington would maintain a similar, high-level communication channel, even though it could be under a different name.

“The mainstream view in the US is to stay engaged with China through various channels,” Zhu Zhiqun said. “It will be harmful and counterproductive if the security and economic dialogue mechanism cannot be maintained.”