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South China Sea: Analysis
ChinaDiplomacy

How will Philippines and China move on after South China Sea ruling?

Philippines’ new leader Rodrigo Duterte faces a foreign relations test in first fortnight of his presidency

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Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte was congratulated by President Xi Jinping on the day of his inauguration. Photo: Reuters
Catherine Wong

The Philippines is likely to opt for a “soft landing” following Tuesday’s rulings by an international tribunal on a territorial row in the South China Sea, analysts say, adding the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte, could seek economic concessions from China in order to resolve it.

Both China and the Philippines had recently shown a willingness to resume talks and strike a compromise in solving their maritime disputes, Chinese and Philippine observers said.

He will not use the arbitration to embarrass China internationally and portray China as an outlaw
Richard Javad Heydarian, De La Salle University

Relations between the two countries have been at a low point in recent years, after the Philippines brought a case before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2013 opposing China’s territorial claims.

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China, which claims most of the maritime features in the South China Sea, has refused to participate in or recognise the case.

Duterte has made conciliatory remarks on several times occasions ahead of the ruling.

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“If it’s favourable to us, let’s talk,” he said in a speech at a Philippine Air Force function on July 5, adding that the Philippines was “not prepared to go to war”.

Chinese ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua was among the first group of foreign envoys to be received by Duterte after he took office. The two have at least met five times since Duterte was elected in May.

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