The shot heard around the bloc: South China Sea ruling will put China’s ties with Asean to the test
The Hague findings will have a lasting impact on China’s ties with the regional grouping, despite both putting on a brave face
This week’s Hague ruling on the South China Sea will put China’s ties with its Southeast Asian neighbours to the test, with the shock waves to reverberate for years to come.
Despite Beijing and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations putting on a brave face ahead of the ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration, diplomatic observers say the otherwise friendly Sino-Asean ties will be strained as tensions in the disputed waters flare again.
“The ruling will have lasting impact on China’s foreign policy,” Professor Zhu Zhiqun of Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, said.
So far the Philippines is the only Asean nation to pursue international arbitration to settle its territorial disputes with China but Tuesday’s damning ruling on Beijing’s claims is likely to encourage three other claimants within the regional bloc – Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei – to go down the same route, according to analysts.
Beijing and the members of Asean clearly understand the stakes in the contentious ruling and have sought in recent weeks to play down their differences, with Beijing insisting the maritime disputes should not become an obstacle to closer bilateral political and economic ties.