So far the Philippines is the only Asean nation to pursue international arbitration to settle its territorial disputes with China but Tuesday’s damning ruling on Beijing’s claims is likely to encourage three other claimants within the regional bloc – Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei – to go down the same route, according to analysts.

Beijing and the members of Asean clearly understand the stakes in the contentious ruling and have sought in recent weeks to play down their differences, with Beijing insisting the maritime disputes should not become an obstacle to closer bilateral political and economic ties.

“While it is true that the overall ties between China and Asean are unlikely to be affected, the ruling looks set to have some lasting impact as the South China Sea issue will become a main topic in bilateral and multilateral occasions in the years to come,” said Du Jifeng, a Southeast Asian affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Du said ties between Beijing and most Asean nations, including non-claimants such as Indonesia and Singapore, had already been strained in the lead-up to the ruling by China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

“The maritime disputes used to be a divisive issue between China and those rival claimants, but increasingly it’s been escalated into a main source of contention between China and most Asean nations,” he said. “Instead of serving as a buffer zone [between China and the United States], Asean nations have become a battlefield for major powers to compete for influence.”

Bonnie Glaser, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, also said Sino-Asean friction was not simply a function of growing US-China rivalry.

Beijing was widely blamed for a diplomatic debacle Asean suffered last month when its foreign ministers failed to issue a joint statement after a meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) over the maritime disputes.

“China’s handling of the South China Sea has been an eye-opener for the entire region,” she said.

“[Its] pressure on the bloc has revealed its interests in a weak and divided Asean. China won’t permit a united Asean to criticise China.”

The arbitration case would also further dampen hopes for stalled talks on a code of conduct in the South China Sea between Beijing and Asean, analysts said.

“Asean will continue on its quest for the Holy Grail, a binding treaty setting out a code of conduct in the South China Sea, that if achieved will bring lasting peace and security to all,” said Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy. “But Asean won’t find its Holy Grail.”

“China is unlikely to impose economic sanctions on the Philippines as it did when former President Benigno Aquino was in power. The worst time of China-Philippines ties is over,” said Chu Yin, an associate professor with the University of International Relations in Beijing.

Analysts also said heightened tensions in the South China Sea had laid bare deep fissures within Asean, which has often been accused of lacking internal coherence in dealing with complex risks and challenges.

Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia, a key ally of China in Southeast Asia, has openly challenged the Philippines for bringing China to the international tribunal and said his government would not support any Asean statement supporting the tribunal’s decision. “Efforts by some countries outside the region to mobilise forces against China would bring negative impacts on Asean and peace in the region,” he was quoted as saying late last month.

Analysts said Asean was unlikely to reach an effective unified position as long as Cambodia was opposed to the arbitration case. As expected, instead of putting up a joint response to the ruling, Asean opted for a tweet, saying on its Twitter account that the bloc’s position on the maritime dispute was “consistent”.

“Senior Asean officials are drafting a response to the tribunal’s ruling, but they haven’t been able to reach consensus that their ministers can approve,” said Thayer.

Glaser agreed. “Asean faces many challenges in the face of China’s rise. It remains to be seen whether it is up to those challenges,” she said.

She said Beijing’s intimidation tactics along with “economic carrots” had often worked on several minor Asean nations, such as Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos. “[If] the Chinese get wind of any Asean statement on the tribunal’s ruling, I’m sure they will do whatever it takes to kill it.”

Analysts called on the mainland government to reconsider its tit-for-tat approach, which they said was counterproductive and had virtually created “a strategic deficit” for Beijing in dealing with its Southeast Asian neighbours.

They warned if Beijing took bold diplomatic, economic and military measures in retaliation to the unfavourable ruling, it would draw Asean nations closer to its strategic rivals such as the United States and Japan.

Additional reporting by Wendy Wu and Laura Zhou