Analysis | What does Donald Trump’s phone call with President Tsai mean for future US arms sales to Taiwan?
US arms sales are not just business deals but have had a vital stabilising effect, analysts say
The ripple effect of a telephone call between US president-elect Donald Trump and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has cast uncertainty overthe protocol of future arms deals between Washington and Taipei, an area of key concern to Beijing.
Following their 10-minute conversation on Friday, Trump said on Twitter: “Interesting how the US sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call”, indicating the incoming US president might treat Taiwan more like an honoured client for American arms exports.
The call came just hours after the US House of Representatives on Friday passed the National Defence Authorisation Act for Fiscal Year 2017, which included for the first time a section on high-level senior military exchanges with Taiwan.
The bill, which was voted through 375-34, will be forwarded to the Senate for consideration this week.
Beijing and Washington set up formal diplomatic ties in 1979, but the US Congress in the same year passed the Taiwan Relations Act that allows arms sales to Taiwan.
Watch: Trump talks with Taiwanese president
The Reagan administration in 1982 promised Taiwan that it would not set a date to end arms sales, nor to hold consultations with Beijing before such sales. Arms sales to Taiwan is an important diplomatic card for the US in its dealings with Beijing.
The mainland sees Taiwan as part of its territory and one of its core interests. It lists arms sales as one of the major barriers to Sino-US diplomatic and military ties. Beijing refuses to renounce the possible use of force to reunify with Taiwan.
Questions also arise whether the Trump administration will observe tacit agreements reached between outgoing President Barack Obama and Beijing that US arms sales to Taiwan would be restricted to “defensive weapons”.
Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military affairs commentator, doubts that the fundamental principles of US arms sales to Taiwan would undergo any major change in the long term.
“Existing arm sales to Taiwan is the most effective and essential cross-strait power stabiliser, a policy carefully formulatied by experts and tested by time. It is not subjected to major changes simply due to any individual’s personal style or willpower,” Ni said.
Watch: China labels Trump call ‘petty action’ by Taiwan
The weapons sales are subject to congressional approval. Members of both parties support them .
However, Ni noted that Trump’s personal style may add variations.
“He is a businessman first and foremost. China should watch out for wild card moves from a Trump government that could use this to leverage economic tussles with China,” Ni said.
Dr Li Fei, deputy director of Xiamen University’s Taiwan Research Institute, said Trump had regarded the phone conversation as a curtesy gesture between a customer and a supplier dealing with defence weapons.
“Trump is not a politician and lacks sensitivity over international diplomacy. He was treating it as a business deal,” Li said.
Zhang Wensheng, a professor at Xiamen University’s Taiwan Research Institute, said the phone call would make Beijing uneasy about how the Trump administration will deal with the self-ruled island.
“Beijing will be worried about what policy regarding Taiwan will be adopted by Trump as he has broken a decades-old tradition,” Zhang said. “It is possible that the Trump administration will be more eager to sell arms to Taiwan as one of Trump’s priorities is to stabilise the US economy and create jobs.”
Ni added that the phone call was in fact a calculated move by Trump’s office to send a signal to China that US was eager to secure existing advantages in Asia as laid out by Obama government.
