How Philippine President Duterte has transformed the Asian geopolitical landscape
The true revolution in Manila’s foreign policy is the almost overnight transformation of a US ally into a leading sceptic of American leadership
“[O]n extremely rare occasions, a single individual’s decisions can radically transform an entire country’s political and socioeconomic structures, with global repercussions,” wrote Stephen Kotkin in his definitive biography of Joseph Stalin.
In many ways, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has exercised, albeit on a humbler scale, a similar role in his country and the broader region.
In the distant future, Duterte is likely to be remembered as the harbinger of a post-American order in Asia. And without a question, so far, China has been the greatest beneficiary of his strategic recalibration.
The true revolution in Duterte’s foreign policy is the almost overnight transformation of a United States ally into a leading sceptic of American leadership in Asia. Under Duterte, relations with the US are no longer as special and sacred as before, but instead largely transactional.
To appreciate Duterte’s singular and earth-shattering impact, one must put his foreign policy into proper historical context. For decades, the Philippine-US alliance served the linchpin of an emerging anti-China bloc in the Asia-Pacific region, with Japan, Australia, Vietnam and, increasingly, even India playing vital supporting roles.