China’s proposed tariffs on US energy raise concerns among shale producers
Beijing says it will impose a 25 per cent tariff on US crude, natural gas and coal if Washington goes ahead with tariffs on Chinese goods
China’s proposed tariffs on US petroleum imports, part of a mounting trade war between the two countries, would crimp sales to the shale industry’s largest customer, adding new pressure on US crude prices, according to energy executives and analysts.
Beijing said it would impose a 25 per cent tariff on imports of US crude, natural gas and coal on July 6 if Washington went ahead, as planned, with its own tariffs on Chinese goods that day.
Energy would be added for the first time to a growing trade dispute that has hit imports of Chinese metals and solar panels, and exports of US medical equipment and soybeans.
Targeting petroleum puts US President Donald Trump administration’s “energy dominance” agenda in Beijing’s cross hairs as US shale has grabbed share from Middle East suppliers in Asia.
China is the largest customer for US crude, importing about 363,000 barrels per day in the six months ended in March. Thomson Reuters shipping data shows those exports have increased since, rising to an expected 450,000 bpd in July.
“It is going to hurt everyone for the short term,” said Ron Gasser, vice-president at Mammoth Exploration, a Texas shale producer. While US crude will continue flowing to market even with tariffs, “it’ll force you to put your oil somewhere else, and it’ll cost you more” to line up other buyers, he said.
US oil exports have steadily grown since a four-decade ban on crude exports was lifted at the end of 2015.
China’s tariff threat caught US producers off guard because it had been discussing buying more US energy and agricultural products to reduce its US$375 billion trade surplus with the United States. The levies could boost suppliers of West African crude at the expense of US exports.
The tariffs are “creating a whole new set of uncertainties on top of what’s already there”, Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of consultancy IHS Markit, said on Tuesday as he arrived in Vienna to attend this week’s Opec’s International Seminar.
On Friday, Opec oil ministers will gather to consider sharply increasing the group’s production this year, a move promoted by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The change is opposed by members Algeria, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela. The US also recently set new sanctions on Iran’s petroleum industry, which is expected to disrupt oil flows.
“The global oil industry didn’t really worry or think about trade issues. Now, trade issues are moving really pretty fast up the agenda,” Yergin said.
The impact is likely to be temporary as US oil becomes less attractive to Chinese buyers. But the tit-for-tat expansion of tariffs has US oil industry officials and politicians calling on the Trump administration to move cautiously.
The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association on Tuesday called on the president “to work with China – and all nations – to reduce barriers to competition rather than promote them”.
Michael Enzi, the US senator for the coal and oil producing state of Wyoming wanted the administration to be “wary of how these retaliatory measures from China could seriously impact the industry”, spokesman Max D’Onofrio said on Monday.
In coal country, there are worries that a trade war could harm exports, said Steve Roberts, president of the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce. “China is an enormously important trading partner,” he said.
Some US producers said growing demand for US energy would overcome the impact of China’s tariffs just as higher oil prices this year have not slowed the global thirst for oil and natural gas.
Gary Evans, chief executive of shale producer Energy Hunter Resources, called the tariffs “a lot of sabre-rattling” that would not hurt exports of US crude oil or liquefied natural gas, the latter a fuel that China has not included on its list of products facing a tariff.
“Crude oil is a fungible global commodity,” Evans said. “Without growing US crude supply and exports, global prices could today be multiples higher than they currently are.”