Donald Trump is trying to woo Vladimir Putin, but Xi Jinping has already won his heart
Trump’s charm offensive towards Putin has caused unease in the US – and it comes a month after Xi said the Russian premier was his ‘most intimate friend’
In the race to woo Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping is beating Donald Trump, political analysts have said.
Trump’s quest to kindle a bromance with the Russian president has made some Americans squirm. His gushy performance in Helsinki, expressing confidence in Putin instead of US intelligence agencies, ignited outrage across the political spectrum in America.
But while Trump’s charm offensive might cause Beijing a twinge of unease, given its tumultuous history with Moscow, in this love triangle, Putin and Xi are linked by strategic necessity, plus genuine personal affection, analysts said.
“Trump has made clear that he is a big fan of Putin,” said Li Xin, director of the Russia centre at the Shanghai Institute of Foreign Studies. “But everyone knows that Trump frequently changes his mind.
“His attempts to be friendly cannot compete with the history and the intimacy of Xi and Putin’s relationship.”
Moscow and Beijing are linked by practical and political needs.
China wants Russian oil and gas to power the world’s second-largest economy. Moscow needs Chinese trade and investment more than ever following its estrangement from the West over its 2014 annexation of Crimea. And they both share a loathing of Islamic radicalism in Central Asia and resent US global dominance.
“Both leaders seek to curtail American influence, weaken US alliances and modify the international system so it is more favourable to them,” Bonnie Glaser of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said in an email.
Trump raves about Putin’s political skills, but the Chinese and Russian leaders have long enthused publicly about their unique rapport.
Ahead of a visit to Beijing in June, Putin reminisced about celebrating his birthday with Xi over vodka and sausages five years ago, telling a Chinese news station: “I’ve never established such relations or made such arrangements with any foreign colleague, but I did it with President Xi.”
The Russian and Chinese presidents have spent more time with one another than either has with any other foreign leader, and in June Xi resented Putin with China’s first “friendship medal” – an ornate gold necklace – and called him “my best, most intimate friend”.
As far as it is possible for global leaders to become real friends, they are “setting a pretty high bar,” said Alexander Gabuev, a Sino-Russian relations expert at the Carnegie Moscow Centre: “China has nothing to worry about.”
Following the Helsinki summit, China’s foreign ministry welcomed improved US-Russian relations. A spokeswoman said Beijing was “full of confidence” about its own ties with Moscow.
“China-Russia relations will not be affected by any external factors,” said Hua Chunying.
Yet there is the remote possibility Washington and Moscow might one day feel the need to unite against China if its rising influence tramples their interests, suggested commentator Harry Kazianis.
“While we might rightly see Moscow as a rogue nation today, tomorrow it could be a partner in containing a common foe,” Kazianis wrote this month in The American Conservative.
That is unlikely any time soon, experts say.
Trump backtracked on one of his comments after the outcry back home over his apparent dismissal of US intelligence reports that Moscow meddled in the 2016 election.
Rather than view Trump as a rival for Russia’s friendship, China is more likely to be pleased by the growing split between Trump and American allies in Europe.
“Beijing has better ties with both Washington and Moscow than they have with each other,” Glaser said. “China likely expects that Trump’s visit will not change this reality.”