US election results unlikely to change Donald Trump’s tough stance on China, observers say
- US president more likely to view poll as a vote of confidence for his domestic and foreign policies
- Curbing China’s rise is the one issue on which Republicans and Democrats agree
The mixed results in Tuesday’s US midterm elections provided further evidence of the political divisions caused by President Donald Trump’s contentious domestic agenda, but left Beijing no wiser as to the possible future direction of his hardline policy on China.
While Trump’s power may be weakened as a result of a divided Congress that looks set to put him under intense scrutiny, observers in both China and the US say the outcome may have little, if any, effect on the unfolding power play between the world’s two biggest economies that has plunged their ties into their worst downward spiral for decades.
“The conflict between China and the US, this mistrust and angry sentiment is more among the elite, and is not something that concerns everyday voters,” said Zha Daojiong, a professor of international political economy at Peking University in Beijing. “No matter what party they belong to, what topic they are voting on, the China factor is very little or even non-existent.”
As in previous midterm polls, foreign policy matters took a back seat to divisive domestic issues like jobs, health care and immigration.
“US-China relations are not a central issue for voters,” said Zhao Ma, an associate professor of modern Chinese history and culture at Washington University in St Louis. “Even though many experts argue that a pain-free trade war with China is nearly impossible, US consumers, especially farmers in the heartland, haven’t yet felt such pain; and most of them continue to support Trump’s domestic agenda and foreign policy.
“Although a split congress could block much of Trump’s controversial agenda and even start the impeachment process, it is highly unlikely to reverse the downward turn of the US-China relations, in light of the bipartisan consensus in Washington that sees China as a ‘revisionist power’ undermining the US-led global political and economic order,” he said.
Observers say Trump is more likely to view the elections results – which saw his Republican Party lose control of the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years while maintaining its majority in the Senate – as a vote of confidence for his domestic and foreign policies.