Why growing Sino-Indian geopolitical frictions may ultimately define the Indo-Pacific order
- Richard Heydarian writes that a security dilemma is gradually poisoning relations between Asia’s two giants
- India sees Chinese encroachment as part of a broader ‘strategic encirclement’
India is the ultimate pivot state of the 21st century. While maintaining stable relations with Russia (major arms supplier), China (top trading partner) and Iran (key energy supplier), the South Asian powerhouse has also stepped up its strategic engagement with Japan and major Western powers.
With its sheer demographic weight and growing geopolitical ambitions, India will ineluctably play a central role in shaping the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific theatre.
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the country has more confidently embraced its new-found global status. But given the depth of poverty and economic challenges at home, development remains a top priority for the Indian political elite.
No wonder why India, so far, seems more interested in having a seat at the table of global powers, while remaining reluctant to fully flex its muscle and, accordingly, commit resources to overly ambitious initiatives abroad.
In the coming years, however, New Delhi is likely to find itself at loggerheads with Beijing, which is becoming a “two oceans” naval powerhouse, both in the Pacific and Indian seascapes, and is already a top source of development help in India’s near neighbourhood.