South China Sea talks necessarily a slow burner – but consensus on what ‘militarisation’ means will help keep them on the boil
- Li Keqiang may be right to warn that a code of conduct for the sea could take three years
- The code is effectively an arms control mechanism, though not the classical type and its 11 parties have complex interests to balance
China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have been on a roll since late last year in their efforts to promote peace and stability in the South China Sea.
They promulgated the draft framework on the proposed code of conduct and adopted a single draft negotiating text for the code in August.
These developments attracted a mixture of reactions – from the most sceptical to the most upbeat about future progress in finalising the mechanism.
However, it would appear that those who expected the code of conduct talks to ride to a swift realisation on the momentum built up by the draft framework and single draft negotiating text might be sorely disappointed.
While some Asean policy elites had indicated that the code might materialise as fast as within the next year, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang may have poured cold water on it with his remarks that the code could take three years to finalise.
Unsurprisingly, at the recent regional summit in Singapore, both Asean and China nevertheless expressed their common desire to finalise discussions on the code.