Is China buying American soybeans? Washington shutdown keeps traders guessing

Commodity traders are in the dark because of the partial US government shutdown, unable to see daily and weekly reports of agricultural exports to obtain clues as to whether China is following through with promises to buy grain and soy amid the ongoing trade war.

Traders have been anxiously awaiting proof from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) that China is ramping up purchases of grains and soy from US farmers, who are preparing their spring planting and trying to secure financing for seeds, fertiliser and land rents.

Now, trade experts and grain analysts warn the suspension of the reports is clouding the marketplace and potentially giving an advantage to big grain companies directly involved in the export trade. The government shut down partially at midnight on December 21.

“We’re watching sales to China like a hawk,” said Ted Seifried, vice-president and chief agricultural market strategist for the Zaner Group.

Beijing resumed buying US cargoes earlier this month, after the two countries agreed on December 1 to a trade war truce. But hefty tariffs on US cargoes remain in place and there is uncertainty over how much the top US soybean customer will purchase.

The gap also gives the large commercial grain merchants – such as Archer Daniels Midland Co, Bunge Ltd, Cargill Inc and Louis Dreyfus Corp – an advantage by allowing them to keep their export deals with countries like China and Mexico out of the public marketplace.

ADM and Cargill said on Friday they had no comment. The other two companies could not be reached for comment.