Opinion | China needs a new strategy to deal with Brazil’s new right-wing president
- Gustavo Oliveira writes that while Jair Bolsonaro campaigned on an anti-China platform, Beijing still has reasons, many of them trade-related, to maintain good relations
- China’s government can deal pragmatically with the new administration, and the Communist Party can strengthen ties with the Brazilian left
Jair Bolsonaro took office on January 1 to serve as the 38th president of Brazil. His term will run until the end of 2022, when he will be eligible for re-election for another four years. This worries the Chinese government, since Bolsonaro campaigned on a virulently anti-China platform.
Brazil is China’s largest commercial partner in Latin America, and China surpassed the US to become Brazil’s No 1 trade partner for the past decade. So there are many reasons to maintain good relations between the two emerging economies.
The basic principle of the Chinese government has been non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and a pragmatic willingness to do business with anyone in power. Chinese experts on Latin America say that the Chinese government will reach out to Bolsonaro’s administration, trying to demonstrate the economic importance of the strategic partnership, which was established in 1993 (in fact, China’s first strategic partnership worldwide).
High-level officials in the Brazilian diplomatic corps and the New Development Bank, better known as the BRICS Bank, have also expressed sentiments that Bolsonaro’s campaign rhetoric will be blunted now that he has taken office, as senior officials and Brazilian lobbyists convince Bolsonaro of the importance of maintaining bilateral and multilateral commitments, and sustaining trade that benefits Brazilian businesses.
These arguments carry weight. After all, Brazilian exports to China amounted to US$47.5 billion in 2017, an increase of 30 per cent from the previous year, when Brazil faced recession and exports to the rest of the world increased merely 3 per cent. This resulted in a positive balance of trade of US$20 billion with China. Germany is the only other western country that maintains a positive balance of trade with China.