US shift on South China Sea ‘grey zone’ aggression signals stronger response ahead

The United States is expected to take more planned and pre-emptive measures in response to China’s “grey zone tactics” in the Asia-Pacific region, according to analysts from the US and Australia.

The assessment follows a call on Wednesday by US Navy chief Admiral John Richardson for tougher action against “grey zone” aggression from Russia and China, as a way to prevent maritime tensions from escalating into full-blown conflicts.

A conceptual space between peace and war, grey zone tactics involve coercive actions below a threshold that could typically prompt a conventional military response.

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Richardson said the US should seek to enforce rules on China’s coastguard and maritime militia fishing boats – two examples of grey zone non-military vessels with which the US Navy may have close and unprofessional encounters.

Lyle Morris, a senior policy analyst with Rand Corporation in Washington, said Richardson’s remarks represented “an important shift in thinking” by the US, which, he argued, should be proactive rather than reactive in its approach to the grey zone challenge.

“One of the faults of the US grey zone strategy thus far has been the fact that the US and its allies have ceded initiative to Russia and China,” Morris said.

“Grey zone actions often blur the line between military and non-military platforms, actions and attribution for events, and are often, but not always, undertaken to assert territorial claims.”

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“The application is simple,” Morris continued. “There are basic rules of the road when it comes to navigation at sea and avoidance of accidents. And these basic rules should include all actors at sea – naval, government and civilian.”