Surprise attack on Taiwan by China’s PLA ‘unlikely’, according to Taipei think tank
- Unusual military activity would be ‘unable to escape’ the watchful eye of US monitoring systems
- Financial, diplomatic and domestic concerns would make Beijing ‘hesitant’ to wage war against the self-ruled island
A surprise attack on Taiwan by the mainland would be highly unlikely, according to a Taipei-based think tank, thanks to the United States’ powerful electronic monitoring systems.
If the mainland really wanted to attack the self-ruled island, it would choose to partially paralyse Taiwan instead of launching an all-out war, the Kuomintang-backed National Policy Foundation said.
“First, the People’s Liberation Army is not confident in amphibious warfare, given its inadequate supply logistics and the island’s problematic geographic formations which would make landing difficult,” said Lin Yu-fang, head of the think tank’s national security division.
“Second, as there would be unusual signs involving military movements, any surprise attack would be unable to escape the watchful eye of the United States, which is equipped with powerful state-of-the-art monitoring systems, including its intelligence satellites.”
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Lin, a former KMT lawmaker who headed the legislature’s foreign and defence affairs committee, said a surprise attack required sweeping military action and, if this could not be achieved, Beijing would drop the tactic in favour of one of its long-time strategies in the event of a cross-strait conflict.
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province that must be brought back to the mainland fold, by force if necessary. It has suspended official exchanges with the island, staged war games around Taiwan and wooed away five of its allies since Tsai Ing-wen, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president and refused to accept the one-China principle.