Surprise attack on Taiwan by China’s PLA ‘unlikely’, according to Taipei think tank
- Unusual military activity would be ‘unable to escape’ the watchful eye of US monitoring systems
- Financial, diplomatic and domestic concerns would make Beijing ‘hesitant’ to wage war against the self-ruled island
A surprise attack on Taiwan by the mainland would be highly unlikely, according to a Taipei-based think tank, thanks to the United States’ powerful electronic monitoring systems.
If the mainland really wanted to attack the self-ruled island, it would choose to partially paralyse Taiwan instead of launching an all-out war, the Kuomintang-backed National Policy Foundation said.
“First, the People’s Liberation Army is not confident in amphibious warfare, given its inadequate supply logistics and the island’s problematic geographic formations which would make landing difficult,” said Lin Yu-fang, head of the think tank’s national security division.
“Second, as there would be unusual signs involving military movements, any surprise attack would be unable to escape the watchful eye of the United States, which is equipped with powerful state-of-the-art monitoring systems, including its intelligence satellites.”
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Lin, a former KMT lawmaker who headed the legislature’s foreign and defence affairs committee, said a surprise attack required sweeping military action and, if this could not be achieved, Beijing would drop the tactic in favour of one of its long-time strategies in the event of a cross-strait conflict.
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province that must be brought back to the mainland fold, by force if necessary. It has suspended official exchanges with the island, staged war games around Taiwan and wooed away five of its allies since Tsai Ing-wen, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president and refused to accept the one-China principle.
In January, Chinese President Xi Jinping asked the island to stop stalling unification with the mainland, saying the two sides should choose representatives to hold unification talks based on the “one country, two systems” applied in Hong Kong and Macau under the one-China principle.
Escalating tensions between Beijing and Taipei have prompted Tsai to call for military and diplomatic help from the US. She has also promoted a policy of self-reliance in defence, through building its own weapons, including submarines.
Lin said that, although the mainland had sharply increased its military power in the past decades, it would remain hesitant to wage war against Taiwan due to its financial, diplomatic and domestic concerns.
“Therefore, in addition to improving its defence capability, Taiwan must also build up its ties with other countries to seek their support and maintain a stable relationship with the mainland,” he said.
Lin said he intended to draft a national defence white paper outlining these points as a reference for a future KMT government in drafting its defence policy towards the mainland.
The KMT was defeated by Tsai in the 2016 presidential elections, which also saw the mainland-friendly KMT lose its majority in the parliament.
Tsai Teh-sheng, former director of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, said the People’s Liberation Army would not want to wage a time-consuming, all-front war as it would require increasing military spending that would hurt China’s domestic economy and the livelihoods of the public.
“It could choose to launch a stiff attack at a prominent target in Taiwan and assassinate the island’s leader as a way to paralyse part of the island before forcing Taiwan to the negotiation table,” he said.
He added that, while Taiwan might be able to bear the first round of a PLA attack, it remained to be seen if the island could withstand second and third waves.
