How the United States nudged the European Union towards a tougher stand on China
- But Washington could also leave Brussels out in the cold with its biggest trading partner, observers say
US pressure on China has helped tip the scales in Europe towards a much tougher stand on China but Brussels is also bracing for US-China trade war deal that could leave Europe on the economic outer with its biggest trading partner, analysts said.
On Tuesday, in a paper that for the first time labelled China a “strategic rival” of the European Union, the EU proposed steps the bloc could take to overhaul its relationship with Beijing, including in sensitive areas such 5G security and foreign investment screening.
EU leaders will vote on the proposal in the “EU-China – a Strategic Outlook” on March 21.
Analysts said that long-standing demands in the document – including greater transparency over China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” infrastructure projects in Europe, and greater market access for European firms in China – had been amplified by the US administration’s aggressive position on China.
Lucrezia Poggetti, research associate at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies, said the EU’s position was rooted in its own position on China but the China-US trade war was a chance to drive its message home.
“Europe has been strategically using the window of opportunity presented by the US-China trade war to push more for its economic interests more assertively,” Poggetti said.
“Some have said that the strong wording of the document reflects the US labelling of China as a ‘strategic competitor’, but I think Europe’s position is independent from that. The definition of China is more sophisticated than that, and reflects debates that we have been having in Europe.”
Björn Jerdén, head of the Asia programme at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, said the greater willingness of US President Donald Trump’s administration to confront Beijing had “justified a tougher approach also in Europe”.
“If we hadn’t seen such a change in US China policy since 2017, I doubt Europe would have moved independently in a tougher direction,” Jerdén said.
However, Cui Hongjian, a senior fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, said that while Europe had hardened its position, it was also preparing to deal with possible fallout of a US-China trade deal.
“If the US and China come out with an agreement, they fear that it will sell out Europe’s interests. They may be afraid that if the US and China come out with a lot of bilateral agreements, there may be less room for European products on the Chinese market,” Cui said.
Europeans are also concerned that Trump might settle for increased Chinese purchases of US goods, and leave aside structural issues, such as China’s state subsidies for industry and demands for greater market access.
Jakub Jakóbowski, senior fellow at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, said Europe was also worried that the US might overlook security issues, including pressure on Chinese tech companies such as Huawei, for the sake of a US-China trade deal.
The US has been urging European countries to ban Huawei from their 5G telecommunications networks over espionage fears.
“[A US-China deal] may also benefit others in the long term, and may be in line with the EU demands in the long term, but this cannot be said for certain,” Jakóbowski said.
“Everybody in Europe is wondering now if the increased pressure on US allies to stop operating with China in fields is linked with trade negotiations. Is it a kind of leveraging strategy that will go away once they reach a satisfactory trade deal, or will it be a long-term vector of US policy that will stay no matter what kind of deal is reached and when.”
