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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s international agenda includes a forum on his signature “Belt and Road Initiative” in Beijing. Photo: AP
Opinion
Philippe Le Corre
Philippe Le Corre

Why ‘win-win’ New Silk Road deals with Italy and France are within Xi Jinping’s grasp

  • Chinese president will be hoping to secure a ‘belt and road’ deal with Rome, but may face a greater challenge in Paris
  • Beijing sees Italy as key to its maritime strategy and hopes to invest in several of its ports

Since ascending to China’s top leadership, Xi Jinping has become well known for his frequent overseas travels.

Now that the annual session of the National People’s Congress is over, the president can look forward to a busy international agenda which includes a forum on his signature “Belt and Road Initiative” in Beijing, where he hopes to host a large number of foreign heads of state and government.

Yet Xi’s trip to Europe, which started on Thursday in Italy, is perhaps the most intriguing of all.

Two of the three countries chosen by Beijing for the visit – Italy and France (he will also travel to Monaco) – are founding members of the European Union. They are also G7 and Nato members, fairly large economies, and strong US allies, which sets them apart from nations in Eastern Europe that are considered easy targets for “predatory” China.

Still, as China knows, the political and economic realities of Paris and Rome could not be further apart.

Italy, run by a complex coalition of populist, headline-grabbing political parties, is in the middle of a deep recession. Rome recently attracted media attention as one of its ruling factions, the Five Star movement, succeeded in getting the government to sign on to Beijing’s belt and road plan.

Xi heads for Europe amid unease over Italian belt and road deal

Although the decision has brought a lot of confusion and could backfire, with possible setbacks from other Western powers, Xi is expected to finalise a belt and road memorandum of understanding with Italy during his official visit.

Beijing also sees the country as a priority for the seafaring component of the belt and road, the Maritime Silk Road, which is considered vital to China’s ever-growing maritime strategy, including greater access to Northern European markets.

French President Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing last year. Photo: EPA-EFE

After acquiring a 51 per cent state in the Greek port of Piraeus in 2016, China has bought positions in the Italian ports of Venice and Genoa and is expected to strike a similar deal with the city of Trieste. Italy ranks third in the EU when it comes to Chinese investment. Meanwhile, Rome runs a 16 billion (US$18.2 billion) trade deficit with Beijing.

France, on the other hand, is the current chair of the Group of 7 nations (comprising Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US) and is run by the highest-profile leader in Europe.

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Although France was the first major Western nation to recognise the People’s Republic of China diplomatically in 1964, the bilateral relationship has had occasional setbacks. France hosted student leaders of the 1989 Tiananmen Square movement and then proceeded with arms sales to Taiwan in the 1990s, raising Beijing’s ire.

This will be Jinping’s second trip to France as China’s president: in 2014, he made a state visit to celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. But French President Emmanuel Macron, since his election in 2017, has adopted a new, less diplomatic rhetoric towards Beijing, which contrasts sharply with Rome’s more China-friendly approach.

Beijing has been trying to counter Washington’s hawkish discourse on China’s growing 5G technology prowess. Photo: Reuters

While visiting China in 2018, Macron suggested that the belt and road plan should not be a “one way road”. Paris has also expressed strong views on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea (most of which Beijing claims as its sovereign territory) and has been pushing for a more restrictive policy on foreign direct investment.

Under French (and German) influence, the European Union has just finalised a much-needed EU-wide foreign investment screening mechanism, giving individual member states a legal framework that they can adopt voluntarily, allowing them to review cases on national security grounds, as well as economic and competition aspects.

Italy may be ready to open four ports to Chinese investment

Despite all this, with regard to its image and global positioning, China needs France. Both are permanent members of the UN Security Council and exert some international influence. France is a key player in Europe. In fields such as technology (including 5G) and the belt and road, Beijing has been trying to counterbalance Washington’s hawkish discourse by gathering support across the Atlantic.

Building a bridge to G7 nations such as Italy and France and getting global recognition for the belt and road are now top Chinese priorities

For example, four years ago, China received support from Britain, Germany, France and Italy when they joined the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – against Washington’s view.

China has also tried to rally Eastern and Central European countries through the “16+1” mechanism (including 11 EU member states and five aspiring ones), a group that meets once a year in the presence of the Chinese premier, but with limited concrete results.

The bottom line is that building a bridge to G7 nations such as Italy and France and getting global recognition for the belt and road are now top Chinese priorities. There is little doubt Xi will try to rally support in Paris. Although Macron is highly unlikely to attend the belt and road forum in Beijing in April, discussions have been taking place in Paris – as in Rome – about the initiative.

Belt and road has more pros than cons

Because Macron appears the most vocal proponent of globalisation in Europe, China also wants to be seen as the new champion of multilateralism and will do its utmost to engage France, in particular, on subjects such as climate, peacekeeping operations and global governance.

On the other hand, the French government – like its Italian counterpart – has expressed interest in more Chinese investments, imports and joint ventures, as well as better access to China’s markets.

Chances that a “win-win” compromise will be found are running high. Across the Atlantic, perceptions could not be more different within a hawkish US administration generally opposed to a deal with Beijing.

Philippe Le Corre is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and a non-resident senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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