Beyond the China-US trade war: what next for the world’s two giants?
- Even with a tariffs ceasefire, Beijing and Washington appear destined for decades of rivalry
There is little cause for optimism in the future relations of the world’s two largest economies: the US and China.
About a year and a half ago, US President Donald Trump labelled China a “strategic competitor” while more recently, Kiron Skinner, the director of policy planning at the US State Department, talked of preparing for “a fight with a really different civilisation”.
The wide differences and deep distrust between the two powers has been highlighted again with the latest abrupt turn in the bilateral trade negotiations. With or without a trade deal, the turbulence in economic ties, widely viewed as the ballast of China-US relations, heralds more choppy waters ahead.
Beijing has shed little light on what exactly China will do to adapt to the changed conditions. A beaming Vice-Premier Liu He said he went to Washington with “sincerity” and despite “pressure” on Friday. But that followed a Thursday commentary in People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece: “We do not want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight and, given no choice, we will fight.”
Analysts’ opinions varied on what cards China will play over the longer term. However, even to the most optimistic, it will be a difficult balancing act for Beijing to maintain an otherwise positive and stable relationship with the United States.
In a sign of strong distrust, a Pentagon report last week said that many major initiatives by Beijing had posed security threats to the US, and not only its military modernisation. The report also found cause for concern in the “Made in China 2025” industrial upgrading programme, China’s growing interest in the Arctic region, even its cultural exchange programmes.