Opinion | China’s new abnormal: European patrols in disputed Southeast Asian waters
- Richard Heydarian writes that Germany’s entry into the fray leaves China once again surrounded by Western naval powers, an echo of the dark days of the Opium Wars
Reflecting on the consequences of China’s rapidly growing military capabilities and footprint in adjacent waters, the grand strategist Edward Luttwak argued that the formation of an informal counter-alliance was almost inevitable.
We will witness, Luttwak predicted in his 2012 book, The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy , “a general realignment of forces against [China], as former allies retreat into a watchful neutrality, former neutrals become adversaries, and adversaries old and new coalesce in formal or informal alliances against the excessively risen power”.
The likely entry of Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse, into the East Asian maritime disputes potently reflects this burgeoning strategic dynamic.
China is no longer just facing resistance from the United States, but also transatlantic allies with growing strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. Echoing the dark days of Opium Wars, China is once again surrounded by Western naval powers.
Germany, however, will be only the latest European power to enter the fray. In the past two years, Britain and France, both with postcolonial territorial possessions in the Indo-Pacific, have stepped up their naval presence in China’s adjacent waters.
In April, Paris enraged Beijing by deploying the French frigate Vendemiaire to the Taiwan Strait.