North Korea may be struggling economically but its status as a de facto nuclear state could be reflected in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first official visit to Pyongyang this week, according to observers. Xi’s two-day state trip, which starts on Thursday, is the first visit by a Chinese president to North Korea in 14 years and of a higher diplomatic status than the three-day “official goodwill” trip his predecessor Hu Jintao made in October 2005. Back then, Hu’s focus was on the “six-party” nuclear talks that involved the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan. The talks were chaired by China and convened to address to concerns about the North’s fledgling nuclear weapons programme. During his trip, Hu stressed that Pyongyang and Beijing should work together to advance the talks, only for the diplomatic effort to come to a standstill in 2009 when North Korea pulled out. Fast forward to 2017 and Pyongyang announced that its nuclear armament programme had been “completed”. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that in January North Korea had 20-30 nuclear warheads, up from the 10-20 of the weapons it was thought to have a year earlier. With the completion of its nuclear programme, Pyongyang said it would pursue an independent path, signalling that it no longer needed to rely so much on China for its survival. China and Russia thwart US-led bid to call out North Korea on UN sanctions violations Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, said that while China’s economic influence over North Korea had grown, nuclear weapons had given Pyongyang greater strategic room to manoeuvre. “While China has tried to work with the international community to motivate North Korea to give up its nuclear programme, the latter has been determined to pursue its own strategic interests, which include becoming a nuclear weapon state to ensure regime survival,” Zhang said. “[Having increased economic leverage] does not mean that China has increased its ability to shape North Korea’s strategic choices.” But there have been signs in the last year that Beijing still has influence in Pyongyang. The two countries have reached out to each other more often and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has visited China four times since March last year. Zhang said the basic pattern of alignment in the region remained unchanged over the past decade. China and Russia remain North Korea’s main supporters, while Japan and South Korea are still the US’ powerful allies in the region. “The basic pattern of geopolitical alignment in the region has seen no major changes,” he said. James Downes, a lecturer in comparative politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said China and North Korea were likely to maintain a close partnership, aiming to minimise the influence of the US allies in the wider Asian region. “[China] also defended North Korea in front of the international world in multiple conditions. In return, North Korea remains committed to China in its overall diplomatic relations,” he said. Chinese state media suggested that Xi’s visit could signal China’s willingness to revive economic ties with its isolated neighbour. Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily indicated, via its social media account, that restoring bilateral economic relations would be on the agenda. China’s economic leverage over North Korea has increased substantially since Hu’s visit. China’s economy is five times the size it was in 2005, according to the World Bank. It also accounts for the bulk of trade with its neighbour, which is feeling the pressure of United Nations sanctions. “North Korea’s economic dependence on China has substantially increased since 2005. Its nuclear ambition has deprived it of normal economic ties with other countries due to various sanction schemes by the world community,” Zhang said. Although exports from North Korea to China plunged 87 per cent year on year in 2018 after further sanctions were imposed in 2017, North Korea’s exports to China rose dramatically in April, according to data from the International Trade Centre. Chinese President Xi Jinping gives North Korean leader Kim Jong-un his full support Adam Ni, a China researcher at Macquarie University in Sydney, said the rise could reflect Beijing’s desire to ensure stability in the region, and prevent an escalation towards a destabilising crisis. “Denuclearisation of [North Korea] is not China’s top priority,” Ni said. “It does not feel threatened by [North Korea’s] nuclear weapons per se, rather its primary concern is the destabilisation of the region leading to major social and economic consequences for northern China. “China wants to take a leading role in determining the future of the region, including by playing a major role in the denuclearisation negotiations.”
