Why Beijing won’t get too excited about John Bolton’s sudden White House exit

US national security adviser John Bolton’s departure from the White House may be a positive for China, but it will not do much to resolve the tensions between Beijing and Washington, Chinese analysts have said. Donald Trump tweeted on Monday that he had told Bolton his services were no longer needed at the White House, adding that he had “disagreed strongly” with many of Bolton’s suggestions. Bolton, who championed a hawkish policy towards Iran, North Korea and China, responded in a tweet saying that he had offered to resign. Since joining the Trump administration in the spring last year, Bolton has called for closer US military ties with Taiwan to help counter Beijing, including more arms sales and stationing military personnel and assets on the island. ....I asked John for his resignation, which was given to me this morning. I thank John very much for his service. I will be naming a new National Security Advisor next week. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2019 He also caused anger in Beijing by meeting Taiwan’s national security chief David Lee Ta-wei in May. Beijing considers Taiwan a wayward province that must be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. Under Bolton, the National Security Council has also played a key role in a sweeping outreach campaign to persuade US allies to stop using telecommunications equipment from Chinese tech giant Huawei, citing national security risks. China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Wednesday at a regular press conference that she would not comment on Bolton’s departure from the White House, but hoped that his successor could play a “constructive role” in advancing bilateral ties. We hope no matter who will take up the position as the next US national security adviser will play a constructive role in pushing for the healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying “We hope no matter who will take up the position as the next US national security adviser will play a constructive role in pushing for the healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations,” she said. Wu Xinbo, director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University, said China saw Bolton as one of the biggest China hawks in the Trump administration, but his departure would not help reverse the trend of deteriorating China-US relations. “Traditionally communications between the two countries’ national security advisers have been an important channel, but that has been cut off under Bolton,” Wu said. Trump’s tariffs find scant support among US firms in China “Bolton hates China and has been reluctant to communicate with China. He has been a leading hawk on China, and he sees China as an even more evil force than Russia, even more so than people like [Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo.” Yang Jiechi, China’s top diplomat and Bolton’s counterpart in Beijing, had their last one-on-one meeting in November before Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Argentina the following month. I offered to resign last night and President Trump said, "Let's talk about it tomorrow." — John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) September 10, 2019 Huang Jing, a US specialist at Beijing Language and Culture University’s Institute of International and Regional Studies said Bolton’s exit was unlikely to have much impact on Trump’s hardline approach towards China, or the deepening tensions between the two powers over trade, technology and geopolitics. Bolton was viewed in Washington as a largely “symbolic” figure in the White House for the benefit of right-wing Trump voters, he said. Why Donald Trump and John Bolton parted ways “While his dismissal may not be good news for Trump who needs to secure his right-wing base in the upcoming presidential election, Bolton has little or close to zero sway when it comes to the administration’s foreign policy decisions,” Huang said, adding that Beijing should not read too much into his exit. The former national security adviser was reported to have clashed with the president over a number of key policy areas including Iran, Venezuela and Afghanistan. Huang also argued that other hawkish China critics in Trump’s circle such as Pompeo and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer could be further empowered in confronting Beijing. “There is little to celebrate for Beijing because Trump’s China policy has won bipartisan backing and it won’t change any time soon. “While it’s good to see the dismissal of an anti-China, Taiwan-friendly policy hawk, it’s worth noting that he is expected to be replaced by another China hardliner, which may help Trump get reelected.” Bolton blindsided as Trump announces on Twitter he’s fired Pang Zhongying, a Beijing-based international affairs expert said: “Trump’s priority is winning the election and he needs to make some headway on key foreign policy deliverables that he has promised since he took office. “Bolton’s firing could be seen in a way as taking the blame for the lack of progress on major challenges such as North Korea, Iran and Afghanistan.” From Beijing’s perspective, Bolton is an ultranationalist who believes in American exceptionalism and an influential sceptic about multilateral diplomacy and global governance, which China views as essential ways of ensuring its peaceful rise. US officials including Pompeo have made clear that the reshuffle of senior cabinet members would not affect Trump’s “America first” populist policies. “Despite Bolton’s dismissal, a large number of officials who share his hardline, confrontational views are still playing dominant roles in Trump’s White House and I can hardly see any possibility that US will make substantial changes to its existing policies on China, especially with the US election looming,” Pang said.