China likely to push Japan on regional trade pact when Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe meet in Beijing
- Japanese prime minister is expected to raise Hong Kong and North Korea as well as human rights, after professor was detained on suspicion of spying
- But for Chinese leader, RCEP – and convincing Tokyo to stay in the deal – will be top of the agenda
China is expected to press Japan to stay in a regional trade pact when President Xi Jinping meets Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Beijing on Monday, according to observers.
Beijing has said relations are now on the path “back to a normal track”, and Xi is expected to pay a state visit to Japan in spring – his first to the country since he took office in 2013. China and Japan also agreed last year to explore cooperation on infrastructure projects in third countries, though little progress has been made.
Talks for what could be the world’s largest trade deal began in 2012 and accelerated last year, mainly pushed by China and Japan, as Asia’s two largest economies face further potential economic pain and declining exports amid a trade war between Beijing and Washington.
“The China-Japan relationship is not simply about these two countries – it can also play a bigger role at the regional level,” said Cai Liang, of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
“RCEP is definitely a key regional cooperation area where China and Japan will need to work together, especially since it is difficult to make progress on security.”
“It is meaningful from the economic, political and potentially the national security point of view,” Makihara said of India being part of the agreement. “Japan will continue to try to persuade India to join.”
Both India and Japan are part of an informal security grouping with Australia and the United States known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which is seen as part of efforts to counter China’s growing influence in the region – and which Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said could stoke a new cold war.
A statement from the remaining 15 countries in November said they had concluded “text-based” negotiations and would begin formal work towards signing the pact in late 2020 while trying to address India’s objections.
So far, neither the Japanese government nor Abe has publicly endorsed Makihara’s comment, and observers said it could have been part of Tokyo’s strategy to persuade New Delhi not to pull out, while attempting to counter Beijing’s leadership on free trade in the region.
“This could be about emphasising Japan’s role in regional integration – that it’s not just a leader on setting the agenda and rules, but in coordinating with developing countries,” Cai said.
Japan has viewed the trade pact as an important part of the “free and open Indo-Pacific” vision advocated by Abe, and India’s absence would be “a big blow” to that, according to Masahiro Kawai, a professor of international finance at the University of Tokyo.
But Kawai said Japan had no reason to step back from the deal, which would connect the country with China and South Korea – two key supply-chain economies in East Asia – especially since the three neighbours were themselves in talks for a trilateral free-trade pact.
“The absence of Japan from RCEP would make it a China-dominated trade agreement and would make China the sole leader of RCEP, which is not desirable for Japan from a political perspective,” he added.
But He Ping, an associate professor in Japanese studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, did not believe Tokyo’s ambivalence on RCEP would affect relations with Beijing.
“It’s very likely that the three leaders will offer support in principle for RCEP then,” He said.
