Phase one trade deal gives Donald Trump bragging rights but phase two is likely a mirage, analysts say
- The US president wants to declare victory and start racking up perceived wins voters will remember as election day approaches
- China shares some of Trump’s short-term outlook, but for very different reasons
As US President Donald Trump prepares to sign a phase one trade deal with China on Wednesday morning, trade experts see it as more of a political document than an economic road map with little chance it will inspire a meaningful phase two agreement any time soon.
But despite the scepticism, the accord hits the pause button on the turmoil, threats and mercurial negotiating that have characterised US-China trade relations over the past 18 months, they add.
As outlined, the deal promises to increase Chinese purchases of American goods and bolster intellectual property protection in return for lowered tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US.
“The president likes pomp and circumstance in cases where he has something to boast about and I think, from his standpoint, he has something to brag about,” said Derek Scissors, resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who was recently briefed on the trade deal by administration officials he declined to identify.
“He can say I’m the only one who can get China to the table, that I forced China into making concessions … and now the Dems can’t touch me on this,” he added, referring to the Democratic Party.
In a further sign of detente before the signing, the US Treasury Department on Monday removed China from a list of countries that it claims manipulate their currencies to gain an unfair trade advantage. The reversal drew criticism from some lawmakers.