ExplainerIs Donald Trump hoping his China-bashing can help him win re-election?

With just weeks to go until the US presidential election, Donald Trump has ramped up his anti-China vitriol, promising on Wednesday to make Beijing pay “a big price” for the damage caused to America by the coronavirus pandemic. Such hawkish rhetoric has characterised Trump’s term in office and his aggressive tone is unlikely to change with the opinion polls suggesting he has an uphill battle to win re-election. But can attacking China help Trump keep the White House? The recent rise in anti-China sentiment in the US means the president’s efforts to link Beijing with the Covid-19 pandemic are likely to bolster his re-election hopes, according to Brendan Thomas-Noone, a research fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. But Trump’s aggressive posturing was nothing new, he said. “Many of the moves the Trump administration has taken in recent months build upon policies that have been put in motion over the past three years,” he said. “The pandemic has certainly accelerated some of these actions, but the election is not the central motivation for actions like backing the South China Sea tribunal or for sending delegates on official visits to Taiwan.” Why does US support for Taiwan upset Beijing so much? Mainland China considers the self-ruled island of Taiwan part of its sovereign territory and Beijing has said repeatedly it is prepared to use force, if necessary, to reunify it. The Trump administration’s shows of support for Taipei – including sending senior officials to the island and supporting its appeal to participate in the World Health Organization’s health assembly – have therefore been a thorn in Beijing’s side. The US is also in talks to sell several major weapons systems to Taiwan, including long-range missiles, drones and mines, which Beijing sees as Washington meddling in its domestic affairs. Before the November presidential election, it is possible that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo could visit Taiwan or the two sides might otherwise upgrade their ties, perhaps with the initiation of negotiations of a free-trade agreement. Taiwan prepares a weapons shopping list to hand US at defence conference Are China and the US fighting a technology war? The Trump administration has been vocal in accusing China of intellectual property theft and sanctioned Chinese telecoms giant Huawei on security grounds. The US has also targeted Chinese-owned apps TikTok and WeChat, and is reportedly considering restrictions on Ant Group – the sister company of Alibaba, which owns the South China Morning Post – and Tencent. Thomas-Noone said he expected more actions against Chinese technology firms, which could spill over into the financial sector. “We could also see an expansion of sanctions on individuals, companies or state entities linked to Beijing’s policies and human rights abuses in Xinjiang,” he said. Why is Trump targeting Chinese officials? The US has imposed sanctions on officials from mainland China and Hong Kong – including Chen Quanguo, the Communist Party secretary of Xinjiang, and Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor – over Beijing’s policies in the far western region and former British colony. But the Trump administration has so far resisted sanctioning the very highest ranks of China’s political elite. In the run-up to the election there may be more sanctions, including on officials deemed to have played a part in covering up the initial Covid-19 outbreak in China. China urged to avoid retaliation over US sanctions on officials behind Hong Kong security law Are Communist Party members barred from becoming US citizens? In a sign it is dusting off its Cold War-era legislation, the US on Friday released guidance on its immigration policy that effectively blocks members of China’s ruling Communist Party from obtaining permanent residency or citizenship of America. Trump’s administration is reported to have considered introducing travel and visa restrictions for the party’s 92 million members in July, but analysts say such a ban would be difficult to enforce. Pompeo has in the past accused the Chinese consulate in New York of being a hub for spies, and in July, the US ordered the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston on espionage allegations. Beijing hit back by ordering the closure of the US consulate in Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province. Could the US-China rivalry spiral into a military conflict? While analysts say it is very unlikely there will be a military clash between the two countries before the US presidential election, the possibility of a military engagement in a hotspot like the South China Sea – which Beijing claims almost in its entirety – cannot be ruled out. Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Centre for China and Globalisation think tank in Beijing, said the US had already levied sanctions and passed legislation to needle China and was unlikely to take any drastic measures ahead of the November vote. “They have already been taking these small actions, but the broader situation will not change,” he said. “There is no point to push things to the point of a real conflict, as it’s not beneficial for either side. The US still has a lot to take care of domestically.”