South China Sea: Beijing will need more than charm to win over Asean, observers say
- Chinese leaders have visited nine Asean countries in recent weeks but free-trade deals and financial aid are unlikely to assuage the bloc’s deep-rooted concerns, analysts say
- Strained ties with Vietnam, the current chair of Asean, will make China’s efforts to curry favour in the region even harder, academic says
Preventing the 10-nation bloc from pivoting towards the United States, rather than China, on key strategic issues was of huge importance to Beijing, he said.
But its disputes with Asean members is making that task more difficult.
China launches largest maritime patrol ship amid rising regional tensions
Despite the best efforts of China and the US to curry favour in Southeast Asia, as a group Asean was unlikely to be swayed one way or another, Li said.
Because of its hedging strategy, “[Asean] is unlikely to make a significant policy shift and take sides, no matter how hard China, Japan or the US tries”, he said.
“And it will be very difficult to ease the concerns [some of its members] have regarding China.”
Explainer | Why US aircraft carriers in South China Sea anger Beijing
Huong Le Thu, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra, said Beijing would find it most difficult to build ties with nations with which it was in dispute in the South China Sea, and Vietnam in particular.
“I don’t think China’s charm offensive will work on Vietnam. It was never very successful,” she said.
“The official gestures may have better effect in other Southeast Asian countries that don’t have active disputes.”
Li said the poor state of relations between Beijing and Hanoi would make it even harder for China to nurture ties with Asean this year, as Vietnam was the current chair of the bloc.
“Vietnam has an opportunity to push Asean to take a stronger position against China,” he said.
While Beijing’s charm offensive was unlikely to result in any significant change in how Beijing was perceived by Asean, it might at least help to offset Washington’s efforts to promote its message in the region, Li said.
It was a matter of “damage control”, he said, and could help China to “deliver a message to those countries that are not already tied to the US on strategic issues”.
US hostility means China can’t come clean on its nuclear arsenal, official says
While it remained to be seen how far the US-led security initiative would develop, Le Thu said Beijing had reason to be concerned.
“The concept [of an Indo-Pacific Nato] has struggled to gain support so far but if the geopolitical reality deteriorates further, it is not an inconceivable option,” she said.