White House touts farm sales to China, but analysts cast doubt on the figures
- Claims appear designed to appeal to a key US voting bloc just days before the presidential election
- Analysis by Peterson Institute for International Economics shows that China’s agriculture purchases from US this year are expected to be about even with 2017
The Trump administration says new agricultural trade data shows that Beijing is on track to fulfil its commitments in the US-China trade deal by the end of the year, including “all-time high” purchases of American beef, pork, corn and soybeans. Other analysts, however, say the administration’s claims are misleading.
“Using the best methodology, we have calculated that China has purchased approximately 71 per cent of its target for 2020,” an administration report published last week said, promoting the new numbers as a victory for US farmers in the face of China’s “problematic” trade practices.
With days left before the election, President Donald Trump and his advisers are keeping a close eye on sentiment among farmers, a constituency that helped him win the White House four years ago. In Iowa, however, a major corn- and soybean-producing state that Trump won by more than nine percentage points in 2016, he is behind Democratic challenger Joe Biden in many polls.
A separate report set to be published this week by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) says that, at a closer look, the administration’s latest numbers are inaccurate.
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Instead of all-time highs, PIIE’s analysis shows that China’s agriculture purchases from the US this year are expected to be largely even with 2017, when Trump took office.