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China looks to be mending fences close to home – including with Japan with which it is contesting the pictured Daiyou/Senkaku islands – amid expectations that US president-elect Joe Biden will try to rebuild old American relationships. Photo: Kyodo
Opinion
As I see it
by Shi Jiangtao
As I see it
by Shi Jiangtao

China’s place in a post-Trump world order is about relationships and good timing

  • Four years ago, in a sign of things to come, Beijing’s relations with the incoming US administration started on the wrong foot
  • This time round, Beijing is looking at ties with its Asian neighbours before managing China’s relationship with a Biden administration
Shi Jiangtao
Shi Jiangtao
Why you can trust SCMP
Effective diplomacy is almost always about timing. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Japan and South Korea this week comes at a particularly sensitive moment. Beijing’s relations with its East Asian neighbours have been tested further in recent months in the midst of spiralling US-China rivalry (and thanks in no small part, to the coronavirus pandemic).

It is the first overseas trip by a top Chinese diplomat during US President Donald Trump’s lame-duck period before the inauguration of his Democratic successor Joe Biden in January. It will be revealing about how it conducts diplomacy in a post-Trump world and, arguably more importantly, how Beijing prioritises its long game of all-round confrontation with Washington in a new era.

Wang is tasked with mending fences with Tokyo amid concerns about renewed tensions over the Senkaku Islands, known as Diaoyu in China, and Japan’s active participation in the Quad, a US-led quadrilateral military alliance also consisting of Australia and India, which Wang dubbed an “Indo-Pacific Nato”.
He is also expected to push for President Xi Jinping’s visit to South Korea this year, despite the resurgence of coronavirus infections in Seoul and a recent diplomatic spat over the interpretation of the origins of the Korean war involving Xi himself.

China’s ambassador to Seoul, Xing Haiming, said last week Seoul would be the destination for Xi’s first overseas trip once the coronavirus situation stabilised.

Pundits say Wang’s trip is part of Beijing’s bid to pull the two US allies closer to China, while exploiting the power vacuum left by the chaotic presidential transition in Washington.

US-China-Taiwan: how will Biden change the balance?

Wang would become the first senior Chinese official to meet Yoshihide Suga in person since the new Japanese prime minister replaced Shinzo Abe in September. Chinese analysts hope the meeting will forge closer personal ties with Suga, which in turn could help shape a more China-friendly policy in Tokyo.

But that is quite challenging, even for veteran diplomats like Wang.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in is already under domestic pressure for his China-friendly approach amid growing anti-China sentiment across the country. Suga has so far shown little incentive to change Abe’s foreign policy commitments on US-Japan security alignment in the Indo-Pacific region, choosing Vietnam instead of China as the destination of his first overseas trip last month.

The importance of timing cannot be overstated in a successful diplomatic act. Four years ago, Beijing’s relations with the incoming US administration started on the wrong foot, despite Xi calling then president-elect Trump less than 24 hours after he declared victory.

During his first US trip after the 2016 election, Xi’s top foreign policy aide Yang Jiechi, who outranks Wang, failed to secure a commitment from Trump’s transition team on the Taiwan issue, which in retrospect was almost a presage of the following four tough years for bilateral ties.

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Beijing sees the self-ruled Taiwan as a renegade province subject to eventual reunification, by force if necessary.

China has been unusually cautious in the midst of this year’s US election drama, with Xi remaining conspicuously silent on Biden’s defeat of Trump’s re-election hopes. Beijing has instead started managing ties with its neighbours first, in the light of the expected priorities of the Biden presidency on strengthening America’s alliance system.

Will Beijing have better luck this time around? With an incoming Biden administration on everyone’s mind, we will find out in good time.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Beijing seeks perfect diplomatic timing
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